Jenifer Baxter: The heat is on '“ solutions to the UK's looming electricity crisis

THE UK is facing an electricity supply crisis. As UK population rises and with the greater use of electricity to power electric vehicles, trains and heating, it looks almost certain that electricity demand is going to rise.
Drax power station - the future of energy policy, and the skills shortage, are of critical importance to Britain's future.Drax power station - the future of energy policy, and the skills shortage, are of critical importance to Britain's future.
Drax power station - the future of energy policy, and the skills shortage, are of critical importance to Britain's future.

But under current Government policy, the UK is on course to produce even less electricity in 10 years’ time than it does now.

The country has seen scant action in recent years to encourage energy reduction and efficiency from industry and consumers.

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With plans to retire the majority of the country’s ageing nuclear fleet, proposals to phase out coal-fired power by 2025 and the cut in renewable energy subsidies, there is little clarity as to how this growing gap is going to be filled.

Having identified a problem, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers attempted to put four likely scenarios on how electricity demand could be met by 2050 in the Government’s own energy calculator, only to find that the latest policy changes take these predictions outside of the scope of the Government’s own calculations.

Much has been said about the potential of a new dash for gas, like the one seen in the UK in the 1990s, but we cannot rely on Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGTs) alone.

The UK would need to build about 30 new CCGT plants in less than 10 years, and we have neither the time, resources nor enough people with the right skills to build this many plants in time. Indeed in the last 10 years we have built just four CCGTs.

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In terms of the future for nuclear power, while plans for Hinkley Point C are now uncertain, it is already too late for any other large nuclear reactors to be planned and built by the coal ‘shut-off’ target of 2025. Twenty nuclear sites were listed for decommissioning in 2005, leaving a significant gap to be filled.

Indeed, at the moment, there are insufficient incentives for companies to invest in any sort of electricity infrastructure or innovation at all and relying on electricity imports will put the UK’s electricity supply at the mercy of the markets, competition, weather and politics of other countries, making electricity less secure and potentially less affordable.

So how do we put things right?

Coal is much more polluting and environmentally unfriendly than gas, nuclear or renewables, so the Government’s plan to phase out the use of unabated coal-fired power is admirable.

However the Government needs to work openly with industry to create a clear plan to demonstrate how the gap this leaves is going to be filled. It is not enough to say what we can’t use to generate electricity – we need to ensure industry is clear what can, and should, be used to power our homes and industry.

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Government needs to work with the sector to create a clear pathway with timeframes and milestones for new electricity infrastructure to be built including CCGTs, energy storage, combined heat and power and nuclear power.

Some of the gap could even be met by small modular nuclear reactors which are quicker to approve and build than traditional larger reactors.

It is disappointing that the Government has now scrapped plans for the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) demonstration project, as this technology is the only viable option to decarbonising our electricity sector in the medium-term.

CCS technology has the potential to be retro-fitted on coal and gas power plants and without it, we are locking ourselves in to relying on unabated fossil fuel power for generations to come. So it is more important than ever for the UK to support other low carbon innovations, and we are calling on the National Infrastructure Commission to prioritise greater energy efficiency by industry and clarify financial incentives for research and development of renewables, energy storage and combined heat and power.

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Finally, an issue which is at the heart of much of the work we do at the Institution is the critical shortage of engineering skills in the UK.

This is an issue that affects not just the energy sector, but transport, construction and the UK’s manufacturing industries more generally.

We need twice the number of graduate engineers we are currently producing just to meet current industry demand and estimates suggest the skills shortage could cost the UK up to £27bn a year.

It is time for the Government to think strategically about how education can best support
the UK’s future and the
skills the country so urgently needs.

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It is only with this long-term energy strategy, which incorporates initiatives for industry to invest in UK energy infrastructure and plans to encourage more people to pursue engineering skills that we can truly be confident that the UK’s lights will stay on.

Dr Jenifer Baxter is Head of Energy and Environment at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.

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