Jonathan Reed: Clegg’s toughest test isn’t the coalition, it’s getting the good news through to his party

The Deputy Prime Minister could be forgiven for wondering whether some people can ever be happy, but discussion of an eye-raising Lib Dem motion can mean only one thing – conference season is here again. Over the next three weeks, gallons of warm white wine and tonnes of buffet food will be polished off by delegates as Clegg, Ed Miliband and David Cameron seek to rally their troops.

In recent years, this three-week season has revolved around a political drama. In 2007, it was the “election that never was”, with Cameron having to produce the speech of his life to stop Gordon Brown calling a snap election that could have left the Tories in oblivion. A year later, it was Brown having to do likewise to save his own job – a feat he achieved, even if the likes of former Chancellor Alistair Darling wish now that things had been different. And last year it was the spectacle of the Labour leadership race with days of intrigue about the relationships within the Miliband family.

But this year there is none of that. Some Lib Dem and Tory activists are unhappy about how much their party is getting from the coalition. Some Labour members will have hoped for more progress from their leader. But crisis for any of them is some way off.

The lack of a clear over-arching personality story leaves media eyes peeled for any hint of a coalition split – expect several as both partners seek to throw some red meat to activists – or discontent with Miliband. So what’s in it for the party leaders this year?

For Clegg, the priority is to find a convincing message about the impact of the Lib Dems in the coalition and to reassert their distinctiveness. It may suit Labour to paint Clegg and the Lib Dems as Tory stooges, but in fact the party has a case for arguing it is getting more out of the coalition that it should, being outnumbered six to one in MP numbers. Just look at the howling from even moderate Tory backbenchers to see what they think about the balance of power in the Government.

The fact that the income tax threshold has been raised significantly twice has only happened because of the Lib Dems, while the party can claim credit for policies like the Pupil Premium, Green Deal and the Green Investment Bank. None of these is to have happened – at least as quickly – under a pure Tory Government. Add to that the moderating force the party has been on the Tories. Health reforms have been re-thought, concessions achieved on Police Commissioners, and right-wing plans like an inheritance tax cut consigned to the dustbin. Human rights legislation still promises to be a fierce battleground.

The big problem for Clegg is not what he is getting from the coalition, it is that he and his party have failed to find a convincing message to demonstrate this to voters – or even to some of their own members. Those on the Left would argue that Clegg has done far more damage than good by allowing the Tories to push through controversial cuts and policies like free schools.

Yet this conveniently ignores this fact. If the Lib Dems not joined the coalition, the logical alternative is that there would have been another election within months where the Tories could have won an outright majority – and Clegg would have been left on the sidelines.

The challenge for Miliband next week is to set out an exciting and clear vision for Labour and for the country. As Darling admitted in his book, the party faces a tough task in regaining its economic credibility.

At the moment, Labour risks being seen as opposing spending cuts while offering little else. A year into his rule, he needs to start explaining his vision for the party, both to reassure Labour supporters that he is the man for the job and to begin the difficult task of persuading others he is a credible Prime Minister in waiting.

For Cameron, meanwhile, the task is to inject some positivity amid the relentless gloom of rising unemployment, falling living standards and a grim economic outlook. He also needs to prove he and George Osborne have not run out of ideas to get the economy growing again.

There is one other potential game-changer that all will be watching. All three parties have been nervously monitoring events in the eurozone – all too aware that conference season has a nasty habit of coinciding with crisis which can render obsolete much of the best-laid pre-conference plans. In 2007, it was Northern Rock. In 2008, it was the near collapse of the entire banking system.

By the time Clegg takes to the stage for his keynote speech on Wednesday, the foibles of his party members may be the least of his worries.

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