Jonathan Reed: Keep the Champagne on ice... the Conservatives aren't quite ready to start celebrating yet

Despite David Cameron arriving at the party's annual conference as the first Tory Prime Minister for 13 years, the Champagne ban is back.

For the past two years, senior Tories have been ordered to steer clear of the bubbly – first to avoid being seen quaffing as the economy teetered on the brink of collapse and then, 12 months ago, so they did not appear to be triumphant on the eve of the election.

This time, it is the impact of June's Emergency Budget and the forthcoming Comprehensive Spending Review which means Tory high command does not want newspapers plastered with embarrassing pictures of jolly Ministers and delegates in a party spirit when families are paying the price for reducing the deficit, and bracing themselves for the cuts that

are due to be announced in three weeks time.

The ban will not stop many activists arriving in high spirits though. The mere fact that Mr Cameron arrives as Prime Minister, rather than Leader of the Opposition, should ensure that no one is in the mood for making trouble.

The ovation that will herald Mr Cameron's arrival on stage on Wednesday to deliver his annual address should be rapturous. Even the fact that the Conservatives are in coalition, rather than in sole charge of the country, will do little to dampen the mood – there is plenty of clear Tory policy already being implemented to allay worries about the impact of the Liberal Democrats.

Free schools are on the way, a new wave of academies authorised, the Office of Budget Responsibility is up and running, regional government is being torn up and welfare reform is underway with a reduced cap on housing benefit. And, better still, their Lib Dem coalition partners

will share the blood for the huge cuts to public spending.

Troublemakers concerned about the unsavoury elements of the deal with Nick Clegg – notably the referendum on changing the voting system – are likely to save their salvos until Parliament resumes, although there is bound to be some rabble rousing about the need to renew the Trident nuclear deterrent.

Another difference is that the governing party can make announcements in the conference season that make a difference rather than a wishlist. Expect a list of policies that will contrast with the lack of detail on offer at Labour's gathering.

Yet, despite the economic backdrop, there is still genuine reasons for the party to be cheerful. Support for the Tories in opinion polls is holding up fairly well so far, while the Lib Dems have suffered badly.

The new Labour leader Ed Miliband, as demonstrated this week, has a big task ahead in uniting, and then turning, his party into an effective opposition after four months of distraction during the leadership campaign, and then the knife-edge result that saw the Doncaster North MP's elder brother, David, quit frontline politics.

Yet Mr Cameron, better than most, knows – and appreciates – the challenge facing Mr Miliband. Like the new Labour leader, he was an unknown political quantity when he took charge of the Tories in 2005. The fact that he rose to power shows that it would be self-indulgent of the Conservatives to write off Labour's chances. If he can do it, so can Labour's new leader.

However, while Mr Cameron became PM in May, he has to remember that he did not win an outright majority against one of the most unpopular Prime Ministers in history – and this political "failure" will provide an under-current to the conference.

Like the hapless Basil pleading "Don't Mention the War" in Fawlty Towers, few will want to talk about an election campaign that saw poll leads projecting a sizeable majority disintegrate into a victory so slim they are reliant on Lib Dem support.

Despite Labour's internal divisions, fatigue after 13 years in power and the economic crisis, the Tories simply failed to fully capitalise on the incumbent government's paralysis.

Part of the problem was that more had not been done to change the party, and its image, before Mr Cameron's rise to prominence.

Furthermore, voters struggled to understand the concept of the "Big Society" which was intended to be the centrepiece of the campaign.

Party chairman Baroness Warsi summed up the theme in straight-talking Yorkshire language after the campaign as "doing your bit", but the simple truth is people failed to get what it all meant and that allowed opponents to paint it as being a fig leaf for extensive cuts to vital services.

The novel approach of publishing a hard-backed manifesto branded an "Invitation to Government", filled with graphics and grand visions, also struggled to capture the public imagination – it was no rival to Labour's simple pledge cards in 1997 that set out five basic promises.

The decision to give Nick Clegg equal status in televised leaders' debates – which transformed the campaign and introduced the Lib Dem leader into the national consciousness – has also been questioned by some inside the party. However, going back on that in future elections will be difficult now the voters have embraced the idea (and the drama).

Last year, Mr Cameron used his conference speech to strike an optimistic note – just as Ed Miliband did in Manchester this week – when he pleaded that the "view from the summit" would be worth the steep climb required to reach it.

Ultimately, the party failed to convince enough voters of their case and the Tories are now being portrayed by their opponents as the party of doom and gloom.

By the time of the next election, the Tories will need to learn from their strategic mistakes and calculate how to take the credit for the coalition's successes while avoiding the blame for its failures.

It's why the Champagne bottles will remain unopened. From David Cameron's perspective, the hard work and tough decisions are only just beginning – and he knows it.