Jonathan Reed: Seats that hold the key to triumph or defeat

David Cameron's decision to visit Leeds, within hours of the election being called on Tuesday, shows the importance the Tories place on winning vital seats, particularly in West Yorkshire.

With only nine of 59 seats in the area currently held by the Tories – compared to Labour's 45 – a key plank of Mr Cameron's transformation of the party has been seeking to reconnect with voters in Yorkshire and the rest of the North.

Now it will be put to the ultimate test.

A clutch of seats in West Yorkshire, particularly based along the M62 corridor, have been identified as vital to the chances of the Tories forming the next government and senior party figures are expected to be blitzing those seats between now and polling day.

Conservative chairman Eric Pickles said: "Yorkshire is a key battleground in the General Election and we will be fighting hard across the county in the coming weeks.

"Our investment in the region in the past few years can be seen with our strong candidates in every constituency – many of whom have now been in place for three years.

"We are committed to ensuring the people of Yorkshire get the very best which is why David Cameron has hosted seven of his Cameron Directs in Yorkshire talking directly to hundreds of people, listening to their concerns, and answering their questions."

This year's campaign is clouded by a shake-up of constituency

boundaries which alter the political make-up of some seats.

Retiring Labour MP John Grogan currently holds Selby with a wafer thin majority, but the boundary changes – creating a new seat of Selby and Ainsty – mean election experts calculate that the Tories would already be holding this seat if the alterations had been made before the last election.

All eyes will also be on the Pennines seats of Calder Valley and Colne Valley, which were won by Labour in 1997 but now have tiny majorities and which would spell disaster for Mr Cameron if the Tories failed to win them.

The Tories are also aware they must win some of the eight seats in and around Leeds – with Pudsey, Elmet and Rothwell, Leeds North East and Leeds North West the main targets – if they are to have any chance of winning a majority, while Halifax, Dewsbury, Keighley, Wakefield, and Batley and Spen are all firmly on the Tory radar.

But Labour will also have to beware of the challenge from the Liberal Democrats, who are particularly targeting Hull North, Sheffield Central and Bradford East.

While the Tories have prospered from William Hague's leadership in fundraising over the past couple of years – bolstered by a party pledge that all funding raised in the region would be spent here, rather than sent down to London – and are already spending heavily on billboard advertising, Labour is relying on activists and electronic campaigning.

Keen to get the official campaign off to a strong start, Labour activists were targeting railway stations yesterday and this morning in a leafleting blitz.

Rosie Winterton, Labour's Minister for Yorkshire and the Humber, said: "It's absolutely clear that Yorkshire and the Humber will be a key battleground in this election.

"Voters in Yorkshire and the Humber will have the chance to decide the future of our region and our country. I know that is a choice they will take very seriously.

"Labour's excellent team of candidates will be fighting for every

single vote in this campaign and making sure that people here take a

long hard look at the opposition."

The Liberal Democrats will face a Tory challenge to two of their

current seats – Harrogate and Knaresborough and Leeds North West – but hope to benefit from party leader Nick Clegg's status as a Yorkshire MP in their fight to steal seats from Labour.

Lord Wallace of Saltaire, Liberal Democrat President for Yorkshire, said: "This is very much a region where we had no seats in 1997 and have three seats now and hope to have six to seven seats after the election as part of the general Liberal Democrat advance.

"It's a key region for us, where we want to at least double our number of seats and increase our vote."

Jonathan Reed is the Yorkshire Post's political editor

The ministers with a lot to lose

A host of Labour Ministers are facing a major fight to keep hold of their seats.

High profile figures who may be a little nervous defending their seats include Chancellor Alistair Darling, who has a majority of 7,242 over the Tories in Edinburgh South West, with the Liberal Democrats just 1,000 further behind.

Justice Secretary Jack Straw has a notional majority of 8,048, while Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw in Exeter has a notional 8,559-vote cushion.

A uniform six per cent swing – the sort of shift needed for David

Cameron to consider moving into Downing Street – would wipe out 16 members of the government.

Junior Environment Minister Dan Norris is in most trouble. He is

fighting Somerset North East, where boundary changes give the Conservatives a notional majority of 212 going into

the election.

Similar changes put Junior Transport Minister Paul Clark at risk in Gillingham and Rainham – he has a notional majority of 15 – while his departmental colleagues Chris Mole (Ipswich, 5,235) and Sadiq Khan (Tooting, 5,169) would lose their seats.

A uniform 6 per cent swing would also scupper other Ministers, including Armed Forces Minister Bill Rammell in Harlow (notional majority 230), Treasury Exchequer Secretary Sarah McCarthy-Fry (Portsmouth North, 315), Schools Minister Vernon Coaker (Gedling, 4,335), Health Minister Gillian Merron (Lincoln, 3,806), Junior Work and Pensions Minister Jim Knight (Dorset South, 1,812) and Communities Minister Shahid Malik (Dewsbury, 3,999).

10 VITAL seats

Selby & Ainsty

Labour's John Grogan was so surprised to hold on to Selby in 2005 that he had to borrow Champagne from his Tory rival. Under the new boundaries, the Tories would probably have won it and Mr Grogan is standing down so if it should be a sure bet this time around.

Calder Valley

Labour's majority has been whittled down from more than 6,000 in 1997 to 1,367 votes. Since its creation in 1983, the constituency has always picked the winning party.

Colne Valley

At 1,501, Labour's majority is only a fraction bigger than its neighbouring constituency. The sort of seat the Tories must win comfortably if they are to form a government.

York Outer

An unusual new seat which forms a doughnut around the city of York. Election experts calculate the Liberal Democrats would have won by 203 votes if this seat had been contested in 2005, but the Conservatives have their eyes firmly fixed on it.

Cleethorpes

Labour's majority has tumbled from more than 9,000 when Tony Blair won his landslide to just 2,642 at the last election. Among the top 60 Tory target seats.

Bradford West

The Conservatives have not held this constituency since 1974, and have recently failed to make much of an impression on Marsha Singh's slim majority. This is the sort of seat that will determine if David Cameron has made inroads into the urban North.

Brigg and Goole

A swing of under four per cent would turn this constituency Tory, but the party has made little dent in Labour MP Ian Cawsey's majority since 1997. Hull councillor Andrew Percy is putting up a fierce challenge.

Halifax

Another test of whether David Cameron is making an impression in the North. This is a real test in a town which felt the impact of the

credit crunch after the near collapse of HBOS.

Leeds North West

A genuine three-way marginal, won by the Tories in 1992, Labour in 1997 and the Liberal Democrats in 2005. The Conservatives will have to come from third place to win it.

Morley and Outwood

With a notional majority of nearly 9,000, this new seat wouldn't usually come on to the radar. But with controversy around Ed Balls's selection for the seat – at the expense of current MP Colin Challen – and the Tories playing on his links to Gordon Brown, it promises to be a lively contest.