Lembit Opik: As Clegg sees off his deadliest rival, can Huhne come back to have the last laugh?

It’s no secret that relations between Huhne and Clegg have at times been formal, and at other times visibly fractious. Some infamous exchanges flared up when Huhne’s team labelled his leadership rival “Calamity Clegg” – a name which angered the Clegg camp and distanced the two men from that point on.

Clegg was not averse to retaliation. In a packed lunch in the House of Commons press gallery, he commented on how good Huhne was at getting his “points across” – a reference to the police inquiry at that time in process regarding Huhne’s speeding points affair.

Thus, Huhne’s current departure – and certain absence from any ministerial position until the outcome of the court case – is as much a windfall benefit to Clegg as it is a knock back for Huhne.

Huhne was not only the loudest alternative voice in the Cabinet – the pessimistic sooth sayer ruffling feathers in Tory ranks. He was also Clegg’s greatest threat. After all, Chris Huhne had never made any secret of his continuing leadership ambitions – an aspiration turbocharged by the belief of many of his supporters that he had, in fact, won the leadership election, being pipped to the post by the vagaries of a tardy postal system which kept some of his votes from arriving until after the count.

Clegg has installed a super loyalist in Huhne’s place – Ed Davey. I shared a suite of offices with Ed for many years. There’s no doubting his ability and drive. Nor is he a threat to Clegg: he would never consider publicly challenging his boss for personal advancement. Norman Lamb, another promotee in the mini-shuffle which Huhne’s departure prompted, is equally fanatical about his love of the Dear Leader. Thus, Castle Clegg has never been so well defended. He and his leadership team reign supreme.

From here on, the threat to Clegg will not be found in the ranks of his tight inner circle. With the continuing poor performance of the Lib Dems in the polls, and the absence of any sign of recovery, even to 2010 levels, in the number of councillors which the party hold nationally, there is no obvious route to recovery for the party at present.

With every lost seat, every demoted target constituency, the level of disenchantment amongst the foot soldiers of the Lib Dem movement increases. Many have simply given up completely, and pursue other interests, perhaps hoping for a return to political activism when the political weather improves.

So where does that leave Clegg? In the short term, he’s safe as houses. Without Huhne, there’s no rallying point for the rebel yell of the party to muster round – even as others eye the top spot, waiting to step forward on the promise of recovering the party’s standing and electoral performance in the post-Clegg era.

There’s one more spectre which must haunt the Clegg camp. If Huhne is found guilty, it is not realistic to think that he could mount a serious challenge to Clegg’s leadership as a candidate – though nothing would prevent him from directing fire in that direction as an informed outsider.

However, if Huhne is acquitted, he will not just be back where he started… but in a considerably strengthened position. In a sense, he’ll be untouchable. That is the period of maximum danger for Clegg, because a cleared Huhne will be able to face down his old rival with the moral authority only available to those who’ve been tried by fire and been left tempered and hardened by the experience.

A rehabilitated Huhne can then offer redemption for the party – and his voice could be a clarion call to all those looking for an alternative to the existing leadership cabal.

Having been forced out into the cold, he might then refuse to return to the warm, creating his own opposition within the party – something many in the movement are keen to see, but impotent to organise. It might also catalyse with leadership ambitions to organise their own bid for the summit in a more focused and energetic fashion, lest they find their window of opportunity closed by Huhne’s redemption and return to the party’s centre of gravity.

It is a reality of politics that the ebb and flow of the tides of power are more powerful than any one person. Huhne certainly will not have wished for his current difficulties. But in keeping with the nature of life, the hardest experiences are often the most educational.

If Huhne can pick up a degree of humility along the way, he could yet become the greatest threat to Clegg’s leadership. As an innocent man, he’ll hold all the cards.

Then, all Clegg can do is wait and see how they are played. It will be a high stakes game, and one in which winner takes all.