Neil Doyle: Bin Laden’s network lives on... and there will be reprisals

It happened in Iraq, where there was a brief spike in suicide bombings following the 2006 killing of al-Qaida’s leader in Iraq: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

He was killed in similar circumstances, after intelligence suggested he was holed up in a house in Buqaba north of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, though his remote palm grove villa was much more modest than bin Laden’s urban fortress in Pakistan.

Zarqawi was reputed to so fanatical that he once plotted to assassinate bin Laden because he thought that the al-Qaida founder’s interpretation of Islam was not strict enough.

The blowback in Iraq was short-lived, though it is reasonable to expect something on a grander scale this time around.

We can expect a series of high-profile regional attacks as al-Qaida’s various branches seek to mark his passing. Attacks on British embassies and diplomats abroad might be expected, as has happened in Yemen recently.

The strong presence of al-Qaida in Yemen is a measure of just how far the network has expanded under bin Laden’s leadership. Its influence has spread worldwide since its formation in the late 1980s and that will not be undone overnight.

It must be hoped that intelligence suggesting a pre-arranged plan to detonate a “doomsday device” to mark his death proves to be fanciful.

A recent secret US intelligence report released last week by WikiLeaks contained a claim from a Guantanamo Bay detainee that a weapon of mass destruction, probably nuclear, has been hidden somewhere in Europe and was to be detonated on news of bin Laden’s death.

In reality, we may see efforts to complete some of his grander projects and fulfil threats made in his increasingly rare video pronouncements and audio messages. His last speech was a warning to France to expect retaliation for both the presence of its troops in Afghanistan and a ban on wearing Islamic face veils in public.

There will be increased risk over the medium term: three men were arrested in Germany on Friday on suspicion of planning a bomb attack. Prosecutors said that they had received an order from a senior al-Qaeda leader based on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

The secret Guantanamo files document the start of the process that led towards pinpointing bin Laden, by detailing detainees’ accounts of bin Laden’s use of couriers to relay orders and messages. It was a four-year effort to identify a trusted aide from a nickname given by a prisoner still being held in Cuba, according to reports.

When al-Qaida officially acknowledges his death it will be couched in terms of welcoming his martyrdom and his certain entry into paradise. It is likely that his followers will paint him as being the originator of the popular uprisings that are now wracking the Arab world.

Bin Laden and other al-Qaida leaders have consistently railed against the so-called tyrants of Western-backed governments in the Middle East and hammered home their desire to establish an Islamic super state in the region.

According to bin Laden’s battle plan, 9/11 was designed to draw the US into a war that would incite public anger and the consequent toppling of Western-friendly governments in the Middle East.

His supporters will try to argue that he died a heroic death after lighting the touch paper that is going to lead to the re-establishment of an Islamic caliphate. The initial reactions from al-Qaida suspects posting to the terror network’s main website suggested that the story was a Western media conspiracy. One early post relayed news of the shooting down of a US aircraft in Pakistan: the author clearly did not know at the time that it was connected to the US bin Laden operation.

His choice of hideout accords with a strategy known as “hiding in plain view”, which has also been key to the network’s exploitation of technology for planning, communications and propaganda.

Cell members have been known to communicate via email using code words based, for example, on planning for a wedding, so as to avoid using words that may trigger surveillance by the authorities.

For me, it makes a fork in the road of an 18-year journey since I first came across bin Laden while reporting on the first al-Qaida attack on the Twin Towers in 1993 with a truck bomb. The plan had been to collapse one tower on to the other, thereby destroying both, though the device was not powerful enough.

The group today is a global network of regional franchises reaching vast audiences online, with brand recognition that is up there with the likes of Pepsi. It is virtually unrecognisable from the early days, but the messages of political violence have remained constant and will continue to resonate.

Indeed, the first semi-official reaction to the news posted on the terror network’s main website said: “Message to Obama and his allies: Jihad will continue until the Day of Resurrection.”

Neil Doyle is a UK-based terrorism expert and author.