Nick Boles: Our coalition leaders should have the courage to make a poll pact for 2015

The initial reaction has not been positive: David Cameron's spokeswoman has said that there are "no plans" for a pact, Nick Clegg's office has ruled it out and Haltemprice and Howden MP, David Davis, has dismissed it as "neither practical, nor particularly helpful". But I would wager that my proposal for an electoral pact will join the long list of political ideas that is rejected at first but eventually becomes reality.

As the British economy stutters out of recession, the Government is beginning the painful task of getting to grips with our vast budget deficit. The process of doing so will not be easy. The tax increases announced by the Chancellor in his emergency budget and the cuts in public spending that he will reveal in next month's Comprehensive Spending Review will cause widespread anger and pain.

Although the coalition is only doing what it must to clear up the mess that Labour left behind, it is the governing parties, that people are likely to blame. Last week, a senior Liberal Democrat Cabinet Minister told veteran political columnist, Andrew Rawnsley, that he thought that his party's poll rating might sink to five per cent over the next couple of years, while my party would be lucky to stay above 25 per cent. I fear he may be right.

Deep unpopularity will put intense pressure on backbench MPs, especially those who are perched uncomfortably on small majorities. When local services are cut or local facilities shut down, they will become the target for angry protest. Their postbags and email inboxes will swell with the parliamentary equivalent of the screeching Howler, that Ron Weasley received from his mother in the first Harry Potter.

Their weekly surgeries will fill with outraged constituents. As the spectre of electoral defeat looms over them, it will take a remarkably strong constitution for MPs to carry on taking the punishment and trooping meekly through the lobbies to vote for the government.

So I think that David Cameron and Nick Clegg will, in time, need to offer their backbenchers a clear incentive: if you support us through all the storms that the next few years will bring, we will protect you when the country goes to the polls in 2015.

If next year's referendum on the voting system recommends a switch to the Alternative Vote, as Liberal Democrats hope, this would simply mean both parties urging their supporters to give the other coalition party their second preference vote.

If the British people decide to keep our present system of electing MPs, as I would prefer, the Conservative Party would not put up a candidate in LibDem seats and the Liberal Democrats would not put up a candidate in Tory ones. The two parties would also agree to give a clear run to whichever of them is best placed to win seats held by the opposition parties.

David Davis is right to observe that the implementation of an electoral pact would be complicated by the boundary review that will take place before the next General Election. But it is far from insurmountable. Electoral analysts are able to calculate the notional majorities that would have been achieved if the last election had been fought on the new boundaries that will come into force before 2015. In the very few cases, where these estimates may be subject to dispute, the party leaders will surely be able to reach a reasonable compromise that favours both parties' incumbent MPs.

It is also a mistake to reject the idea of an electoral pact on ideological grounds. The coalition is underpinned by both parties' shared commitment to five fundamental principles. We believe in the freedom of every individual to lead their life as they see fit, without interference from an overbearing state.

We want our Government to measure itself by its success in creating opportunity for those born into poverty. We share a sense of responsibility for the natural world and the health of our planet. We realise that we cannot take our prosperity for granted and that we must help British businesses find new ways to compete. We are determined that local communities should be given the power and freedom to take charge of their own destinies.

In 2015, Conservative and Liberal Democrat ministers and MPs will have been working together for five years to put Britain back on the right track. The British people will find it bizarre, if, just before that election, we start attacking each other again.

I am confident that the coalition will have a record that Conservatives and Liberal Democrats can be proud of: we should have the courage to stand before the British people and ask them to give this new kind of government five more years.

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Nick Boles is Conservative MP for Grantham and Stamford. He's the author of Which Way's Up? The future for coalition Britain and how to get there, published by Biteback, price 8.99.