Patrick Mercer: As the bombs fall on Libya, I fear we may be facing a long and messy war

They are all being trotted out again over Libya where an unpopular and lethally violent despot is making himself difficult not just to his own people but also to the West.

Doesn’t it all sound just like Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, again?

But before we go too far down the Iraq/Libya comparison, it is worth remembering that Colonel Gaddafi has, in the past, murdered British airline passengers, policemen and soldiers and armed the IRA.

This man’s stock in trade is terror and it is not going to be made any easier by the fact that Tony Blair not only cosied up to him but also sold him large quantities of weapons.

I was the first Tory MP to call for a no-fly zone. That is almost three weeks ago now and I called for it on the slightly unrealistic premise that it would be legal and quick.

Now, nothing that involves the United Nations is going to be quick – that’s a given – and I think that the West may be too late in averting Gaddafi’s re-conquest of his own country.

I hope I am wrong, but at least what we have achieved via the United Nations has been done legally. And the fact that the Attorney General’s advice is that the current mission is lawful both nationally and internationally is the crucial difference with the last government’s actions over Iraq.

The fact remains that we are dealing with a man who is well versed in the arts of deceit, and who understands that propaganda is every bit as powerful as rockets and bombs.

So, the trick for the West will be in keeping a coalition together and involving other Arab nations as extensively as they possibly can.

I believe that what has been achieved by our diplomats has, so far, been remarkably successful.

The fact that Russia, China and others have not stymied the no-fly zone is a significant achievement, but it is vital that we don’t overstep the mark.

So, the wobbles that we have seen by the Arab League are deeply concerning, particularly when they happened at such an early stage of military action. I suggest that this will become a long-term business in which the clear participation of other Arab nations is crucial.

That’s why it is so important that any ambivalence from the Government is cleared up over how UN Resolution 1973 is going to be implemented.

For instance, there cannot be disagreement over whether Colonel Gaddafi is a legitimate military target or not and there must be a precise statement to that effect from the Prime Minister.

Similarly, there has got to be no argument over the use of small numbers of special forces on the ground to co-ordinate the bombing effort.

Clearly, that does not constitute an invasion but their capture or death will play straight into the hands of Colonel Gaddafi and will, no doubt, cause friction amongst the coalition.

All this, of course, is predicated upon the fact that we can continue further military efforts for the foreseeable future.

That is why I underlined quick action rather than dithering.

We simply don’t have the resources to contribute to a no-fly zone and other military action indefinitely.

Our aircrews flew for 12 years over Iraq before there was a ground invasion: we simply don’t have the men or the kit to carry out such a thing while the campaign in Afghanistan/Pakistan continues.

That’s why the Government must look terribly carefully at the Strategic Defence and Security Review and heed the words of those who want it to be re-visited.

But mark this: Libya is today’s problem – and it ain’t going away. Tomorrow’s problem is going to be different but every bit as challenging, as Arab nations from Syria, through Yemen to Saudi Arabia, are all about to embark on similar, troubled paths.

It’s quite hard to invoke the arguments about Colonel Gaddafi mistreating his own people when other regimes with whom we are, perhaps, more friendly are doing the same.

On top of this, we had enough difficulty evacuating the modest numbers of Britons from Libya; what’s going to happen if we need to carry out a similar exercise in Saudi Arabia where there are far more of our people?

I get an awful, sinking feeling about Libya. We were never going to get involved quickly and forcefully and then extract cleanly, no matter how much I would have liked that.

I suspect that Colonel Gaddafi may be right and that this whole affair will degenerate into a long and messy war. I doubt that we can sustain that militarily (especially when other problems need to be contained) but we must be ready for it politically.

Patrick Mercer is a former soldier and the Conservative MP for Newark.