Paul Rogers: Murderers we under-estimate at world’s peril

At the core is the leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and immediately around him is a group of Iraqis, not all of whom share his extreme religious outlook. Many of them may be relatively secular, but much more significantly they fought US and British Special Forces in the violent and shadowy counter-insurgency war in Iraq that started at the end of 2004 and lasted the best part of four years.

That war greatly damaged the Sunni rebel militias, with thousands killed and tens of thousands imprisoned for years at a time at Camp Bucca and elsewhere. Many, though, survived and became even more extreme in their views – indeed al-Baghdadi himself was one of the people detained. They are resentful, bitter, angry and brutal.

When the United States and Britain withdrew from Iraq at the end of 2011, most of the detainees had been released and in the past three years or so many formed the core of the ‘Islamic State’ movement. In doing so they were indirectly aided by the actions of the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Malaki, favouring as it did the Shi’a majority at the expense of the Sunni minority. One result was that some of the Sunni clan groups supported them in opposing Malaki in spite of their brutality.

By linking up with extreme Islamists in Syria, they now control territory almost as large as Britain, with a population of around five million. It comes complete with oil fields, hydroelectric plants and rich croplands, not to mention huge quantities of weapons looted from Iraqi Army bases that they have over-run, especially when taking control of Mosul.

One other development needs to be recognised. President Obama made it clear last Wednesday that IS must be degraded and then destroyed and few people realise just how intense the war already is. In the space of just a few weeks the US military has attacked over 200 targets, using more than 250 air-to-surface missiles and bombs.

It has conducted over 2,700 sorties involving reconnaissance, target acquisition, refuelling, combat air patrol and other functions and has close to 2,000 troops already on the ground in Iraq. It is already establishing an air base near Irbil in the Kurdish region and has a substantial facility operational at Baghdad International Airport. There are reliable reports that US Special Forces are operating in Iraq, and US military leaders are calling for them to be used in Syria as well.

In short, there is already a war in progress, and one of the grim responses from IS is to execute hostages. Moreover, they do it in a manner calculated to have the greatest political effect, stirring up antagonisms in Britain and elsewhere as well as aiming to provoke a military response. The ‘Islamic State’ positively wants a war with the West.

This may seem strange but from its perspective it needs to present itself as a vanguard movement protecting the Islamic world from the ravages of the “far enemy” of the West. In doing so it readily points to what it presents as the 13-year occupation of Afghanistan, 11 years in Iraq, three years of western-induced chaos in Libya and more than 2,000 people killed in Gaza. Even if the West moves heavily against it, and undoubtedly makes initial gains, al-Baghdadi and the leadership will be looking to the long term – decades not years.

It is this that leaves David Cameron, Barack Obama and other western leaders with a real dilemma. There will inevitably be calls for very strong action against IS, particularly after the horrific hostage killings, but there will also be advisers at a senior level who will recognise that Baghdadi and his cohorts want this and will therefore urge caution. Some will argue that it is necessary to work more closely with the Iranians, an uncomfortable thought in Washington just now, and many will say it is essential to build stronger diplomatic bridges with the Saudis, Turks and Egyptians.

Even more so will be the need to support the new Iraqi government in being far more conciliatory to the Sunni minority, thereby undercutting the support many of them have given the Islamists that has been so helpful in the recent advances across northern Iraq. None of this seems very satisfactory as an immediate response to the murders, which is why Mr Cameron has such a difficult job ahead. Yet the dangers of a full-scale war are all too evident, given the experience since 9/11.

One element that is hugely important is the critical need for much greater humanitarian assistance right across the region. The UK is one of the most important actors in this work with its substantial aid programme. It is a programme of work for which David Haines gave his life and even when we are still reeling from the shock of his murder, it is work that we should be proud of.

• Paul Rogers is a professor of peace studies at the University of Bradford.