Rishi Sunak has become a star - but I worry about his sums: Bill Carmichael

We’ve all seen those Hollywood movies where the young understudy in a Broadway musical is suddenly thrust into the limelight after the established star is indisposed, only to put in a barnstorming performance that proves to be the beginning of a stellar career.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak outside 11 Downing Street, London, before heading to the House of Commons to deliver his Budget. Picture: Jones/PA WireChancellor Rishi Sunak outside 11 Downing Street, London, before heading to the House of Commons to deliver his Budget. Picture: Jones/PA Wire
Chancellor Rishi Sunak outside 11 Downing Street, London, before heading to the House of Commons to deliver his Budget. Picture: Jones/PA Wire

After watching events in Westminster this week it would seem our own Parliament could teach Tinseltown a thing or two about stories featuring an unlikely rise to fame.

Rishi Sunak only entered parliament as the MP for Richmond (incidentally as William Hague’s successor) in 2015 and until a few months ago was a mere bag carrier in the Department for Local Government.

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But following Sajid Javid’s falling out with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Sunak was suddenly thrust centre stage as Chancellor of the Exchequer with just weeks to prepare what was widely described as the most significant budget in decades.

Not only did Sunak have to cope with the fallout from Brexit, he had to deliver on Johnson’s election pledges to turn on the spending taps and “level up” the north. And to put a cherry on the cake, he also had to consider emergency action to deal with the coronavirus crisis, which is ripping holes in economies around the world and is likely to put enormous pressure on the NHS.

How did Sunak do? Well, the cheery smiles on the Government side and the deep, unremitting gloom on the Labour benches opposite, told its own story. This was a deeply impressive and mature performance that belied his years – he is still only 39. There was an easy confidence and oodles of public school “polish” – I suppose that is what you get from £40,000-a-year Winchester College (it came as absolutely no surprise to learn he was head boy). After the dry, robotic performances of ‘Spreadsheet’ Phil Hammond and Javid, Sunak’s engaging style came like a breath of virus-free air.

And he managed to hammer home Boris’s “We’re getting things done” mantra without it grating on the nerves too much. But there was substance behind the style too, with Sunak rattling off the figures as though he had committed them to memory (perhaps he had!).

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There was £5bn extra for the NHS to deal with the virus crisis, moves to ensure workers told to self-isolate would receive sick pay, and a 12-month business rate holiday for small shops, restaurants, music venues and cinemas.

In total the Chancellor announced a stonking £30bn boost to the economy, including £12bn specifically targeted at coronavirus counter-measures.

No sooner had Sunak sat down after his speech, to backslapping congratulations from the Government front bench, than pundits were speculating that we had witnessed a future Prime Minister in action. One enamoured national newspaper ran the headline: “A star is born!”

Well, perhaps. But with Labour seemingly disinterested in winning elections or wielding actual power any more, it is certainly possible. At the moment Sunak needs to show unswerving loyalty to the Prime Minister while demonstrating he is very much his own man – and he made a very good start on that this week. So all is absolutely tickety-boo and right with the world? Please excuse me a not-so-small note of caution.

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When the Conservatives inherited a wrecked economy in 2010, the then Chancellor George Osborne promised to eradicate the deficit and balance the books by 2015. He failed to deliver on that promise, as have successive Conservative Chancellors since then. As a country we are still spending more than we earn, with the annual deficits adding to our total debt. Now Sunak has effectively abandoned the promises to balance the books and “live within our means”. His budget will add over £100bn to public borrowing by 2024 and push our total debts to over £2 trillion!

It is all a very long way from the pledges of fiscal rectitude promised by the Conservatives when they came to power a decade ago. Spending like a sailor on shore leave may be the right thing to do in a crisis, and if interest rates remain at historic lows, it may be worth it to keep the economy afloat. But if interest rates do rise our huge level of debt could plunge us into deep trouble.

We must keep our fingers crossed that as well as being a confident Chancellor, Rishi Sunak also turns out to be a lucky one.

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