Tom Palmer: Spirit of independence where town meets country

Shipley has a long history of maverick politicians – Geoffrey Hirst

often rebelled against the party leadership in the 1950s, '60s and '70s, Sir Marcus Fox was fiercely independent-minded for nearly three decades after winning the seat in 1970 and current MP Philip Davies is renowned for saying what he thinks, rather than toeing the party line.

In neighbouring Keighley, the constituency centres on two towns that, although only separated by a few miles, are worlds apart.

The deprived estates in Keighley – formerly a prime target for the BNP –are far removed from the idyllic homes in affluent Ilkley.

It sets a tough task for Tory candidate Kris Hopkins and Labour hopeful Jane Thomas as they tackle a vast array of issues from immigration and racial tension to tourism, farming and business.

Political analysts should keep a close eye on the Keighley result – only twice in the last 15 General Elections has the seat not predicted the next Government. It is a barometer seat.

Ilkley has large numbers of independent shops and the Ilkley Business Forum said any incoming MP would need to work hard to protect the town's identity. Spokeswoman Jeni Cropper said: "We realise that we cannot rely on governmental support in the form of grants and funding, though of course this is what is needed to help smaller businesses survive.

"We would like a recognition of what is needed in rural towns and in Yorkshire, not just for the main cities and London, and would like our MP to be part of this self-help, diverse business scene."

While the north and south of the seat are traditionally Conservative, Keighley itself is a former textile town and provides most of Labour's support.

The town's population is around 15 per cent Muslim, and integration is a significant issue. West Keighley was briefly the BNP's safest council seat after they won in 2004 and the Parliamentary seat was contested by the BNP leader Nick Griffin in 2005.

Support for the far right has dwindled significantly in the last five years and the BNP no longer has any councillors in Keighley. The NHS is a major talking point in the town – the decline of the textile and engineering industries means that Airedale General Hospital is the biggest employer – and many are sceptical over Tory and Labour claims that frontline services will be protected.

Shipley was held by Labour until 1950 when it fell to Geoffrey Hirst, who spent the last years of his tenure as an Independent Conservative.

Marcus Fox took over in 1970 and held the seat for 27 years. In 1992, his majority was more than 12,000 but, like many others, he fell to the Labour landslide in 1997 when New Labour's Chris Leslie won with a 14 per cent swing.

Mr Leslie lost to Philip Davies in 2005 who took the seat with 422-vote majority. His Euroscepticism means Ukip is not fielding a candidate this time around.

Labour rival Susan Hinchcliffe said: "The economy is the main thing; it is fundamental to everything."

Shipley

n Current MP: Philip Davies, Conservative

n Notional majority: 450

n Last election: Swing 2% from Lab to Con

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Philip Davies

n Labour – Susan Hinchcliffe

n Lib Dem – John Harris

n Green – Kevin Warnes

Rating: Very tight marginal but Conservatives the favourites.

Keighley

n Current MP: Ann Cryer, Labour (standing down)

n Majority: 4,852

n Last election: Swing 0.6% Con to Lab

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Kris Hopkins

n Labour – Jane Thomas

n Lib Dem – Nader Fekri

n BNP – Andrew Brons

n National Front – Steven Smith

n UKIP – Paul Latham

Rating: Tory target and expected to be close.

A-Z of Yorkshire constituencies

Continuing our run-through of regional constituencies:

Skipton and Ripon

n Current MP: David Curry, Conservative (standing down)

n Notional majority: 11,596

n Last election: Swing 1.6% Con to Lib Dem

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Julian Smith

n Labour – Claire Hazelgrove

n Lib Dem – Helen Flynn

n BNP – Bernard Allen

n Independent – Roger Bell

n UKIP – Rodney Mills

n Virtue Currency Cognitive Appraisal Party – Robert Leakey

n Youth – Dylan Gilligan

Rating: One of the safest Conservative seats in the country.

Wenthworth and Dearne

(new seat replaces Wentworth)

n Current MP: John Healey, Labour

n Notional majority: 17,551

n Last election: Swing 3.2% Lab to Con

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Michelle Donelan

n Labour – John Healey

n Lib Dems – Nick Love

n BNP – George Baldwin

n UKIP – John Wilkinson

Rating: Safe Labour.

York central

(new seat, replaces City of York)

n Current MP: Hugh Bayley

n Notional Majority: 10,344

n Last election: 3.2% from Labour to Conservative

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Susan Wade Weeks

n Labour – Hugh Bayley

n Lib Dem – Christian Vassie

n BNP – Jeff Kelly

n Green – Andy Chase

n Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party – Eddie Vee

n UKIP – Paul Abbott

Rating: Safe Labour.