Tom Palmer: Tories aim for rich pickings as new seat turns into potential stronghold

The party's campaign machine is rumbling through the North Yorkshire countryside and has made the new Selby and Ainsty seat its number one target in the region.

Boundary changes have helped David Cameron's team. They now have the notional majority and analysts will regard the seat – which replaces the old Selby constituency relinquished by retiring Labour MP John Grogan – as a Tory hold rather than a gain.

Far from being complacent, the party has looked to cement its position, with hundreds of billboards now decorating the landscape and Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, the Shadow Community Cohesion Minister, has already hit the campaign trail in support of Tory candidate Nigel Adams.

Any student vote has all but gone with the University of York at Heslington now part of the neighbouring York Outer constituency. In return, Selby gains a swathe of countryside to the north from the dismembered Vale of York seat.

The situation seems desperate for Labour candidate Jan Marshall – one Labour source said the seat was not considered a battleground but a Tory stronghold – but all is not completely lost for the long-standing local councillor.

There have been a number of major regeneration projects in the area and Mr Grogan leaves behind an exceptional reputation, with those from across the political spectrum praising his work.

The primary concerns for voters were jobs and the regeneration of the two towns.

The vicar of Selby Abbey, Father Keith Richards, sees unemployment as a key problem and called for an MP to "provide a new vision".

He said: "There is a remarkably low level of self esteem in the town – both individually and corporately.

"There is a great need for Government to encourage new industry and commerce and for a renewed sense of engagement with local politics."

Farmer Richard Bramley said any incoming MP – now with a large number of rural voters – would need to champion the quality of local produce.

He said: "Farmers provide about two thirds of the food in this country, to an exceptionally high standard, and maintain the landscapes that so many people pay to visit.

"Farming is central to society – everyone has to eat, and those high standards need to be made clear through campaigns such as better food labelling."

Tourism has helped the area through the recession. Selby Abbey attracts thousands of visitors a year and small bed and breakfast businesses and country pubs populate the countryside, but proposed tax changes could damage the pub industry and the communities that rely on it.

Tadcaster is famously associated with the brewing industry and retains three breweries, producing John Smith's bitter.

Geoff Gordon, chairman of Selby Chamber of Commerce, said: "A key issue is the village pubs, the taxes have hit the breweries hard – in some locals it costs more than 3 for a pint of beer – but it costs less than 1 in the supermarkets and something needs to be done about that.

"It's trying to hit binge drinking but it's not affecting binge

drinkers, whereas some people are losing their livelihoods.

"Pubs are closing all the time, and every time you lose a small village pub you lose a tremendous amenity – village life and community life suffer because of it."

Nigel Adams believes investment can be attracted, but businesses have to be offered an incentive. "In the last four years, we have seen the numbers of those out of work increase, we are now in a situation where we have one of the worst unemployment rates in North Yorkshire," he said.

"We need to be selling the area better and attracting business to the area.

"The constituency has great potential but we need to make the

conditions for business more attractive. To start with, firms are struggling with the burden of taxation."

Ms Marshall admitted the boundary changes had not helped her campaign, but she hopes government investment in the constituency over the past 13 years will be rewarded.

Pointing to the new college in Selby, the town's bypass, the

development of a new hospital and flood defences, she believes she has the credentials to tackle the jobs issue as well as provide help for rural communities.

She said: "I would continue to work with Yorkshire Forward to ensure that public expenditure is invested in the Selby and Ainsty area providing the conditions for employers to create good jobs in the area.

"Regarding promoting rural towns and villages, I have been involved with Thirsk Regeneration Initiative from its first year, leading on some projects and an active committee member – I believe that we were successful, particularly in our first three years, and I would bring that knowledge and experience to assist in strengthening our rural towns and villages."

The facts

Selby and Ainsty

n Current MP: John Grogan, Labour (standing down)

n Majority: 2005 Notional Conservative majority of 2,060

n Last election: Swing 1.7% from Labour to Conservative

Confirmed Candidates:

n Labour – Jan Marshall

n Conservative – Nigel Adams

n Lib Dem – Tom Holvey

n Ukip – Darren Haley

n English Democrat – Graham Glynn

n BNP – Duncan Lorriman

n Boundary changes: More than a third of the old Selby seat changed, giving Conservatives a notional majority.

n Rating: Top Conservative target in Yorkshire.

*Figure used is the notional majority, the projected figure if the 2005 election had been fought on this year's constituency boundaries.

A-Z of Yorkshire constituencies

Starting today, a run-through of all the constituencies in our region:

Barnsley Central

n Currently held by: Labour

n Current MP: Eric Illsley

n Notional majority*: 11,839

n Last election: Swing 5.2% Lab to Lib Dems

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Piers Tempest

n Labour – Eric Illsley

n Lib Dem – Christopher Wiggin

n BNP – Ian Sutton

n Ind – Tony Devoy

n Socialist Labour – Terry Robinson

n UKIP – David Silver

Rating: Safe Labour

The constituency:

n Large proportion of public sector jobs could be hit by post-election spending cuts.

n Eric Illsley found himself at the centre of the expenses scandal after allegedly overclaiming on council tax, having to repay 6,000.

Barnsley East

(formerly Barnsley East & Mexborough)

n Currently held by: Labour

n Current MP: Jeff Ennis

(standing down)

n Notional majority*: 18,298

n Last election: Swing 4.4% Lab to Lib Dems

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – James Hockney

n Labour – Michael Dugher

n Liberal Democrat – John Brown

n BNP – Colin Porter

n Independent – Eddie Devoy

n Independent – Keith Hogan

n Socialist Labour – Ken Capstick

n UKIP – Tony Watson

Rating: Safe Labour

The constituency:

n Michael Dugher was Gordon Brown's chief political spokesman and stood in Skipton and Ripon in 2001.

n Includes many mining communities and also large rural stretches – constituency was abolished in 1997 to include Mexborough, but boundary changes now revert back to previous existence.

Bassetlaw

n Currently held by: Labour

n Current MP: John Mann

n Notional majority*: 8,256

n Last election: Swing 0.9% Cons

to Lab

Confirmed candidates:

n Conservative – Keith Girling

n Labour – John Mann

n Lib Dem – David Dobbie

n Independent – Grahame Whitehurst

n UKIP – Andrew Hamilton

Rating: Big Labour majority but boundary changes favour Tories

The constituency:

n Labour has held the mining seat, covering the market towns of Retford and Worksop, along with swathes of parkland and countryside, since 1935.

n Turnout has not topped 58.1 per cent at a general election since 1997.