Bernard Ingham: May goes to the country to outflank Brexit opponents

Are we still for Brexit or not? And do we think Theresa May is the one to handle it and lead the country in an uncertain world?

That is the choice at this election.

You could argue that she is foolhardy with the world in such a state of fevered uncertainty after President Trump’s display of might in Syria, Afghanistan and North Korea.

Alternatively, it might be that the balance of intelligence in the Foreign Office is that all will be right on the night. Let’s hope they are right.

I must say that I never thought Theresa May would give in, however reluctantly, to Tory pressure for an early general election at this time. It is out of the top drawer of May’s political management: take your time to make up your mind and then go for it. She reminds me in this respect of Margaret Thatcher.

Notwithstanding Trump and the tyrants, there is, however, a certain logic in May choosing to go to the country, subject to her securing a two-thirds majority in Parliament for repealing the five year election rule.

She should manage it since Jeremy Corbyn, possibly in an act of bravado, has said he would support such a move. And if they are consistent – which is by no means certain – the SNP will also back the repeal since they are so addicted to national votes. Whatever happens, they will seek to interpret the outcome as endorsing Scotland’s desire for independence inside Europe.

But back to the PM’s logic. She is surely right that the Europhiles will seek at every turn to frustrate the will of the people over Brexit. She needs the authority, not because she has never won a general election as leader, but to get her way in the Commons.

I do not go much for the argument that she has only changed her mind because she holds such public support over Labour that, according to the polls, its continuation as a force in British politics is open to question.

She could surely have contemplated popular endorsement on entering No 10 given her wholeheartedly embracing Brexit, the parlous state of the Labour Party and Nicola Sturgeon’s irritably tetchy presence as Scotland’s First Minister.

Now, she goes into an election, Parliament willing, with up to a 37-point advantage in public esteem over Corbyn and the Tories holding a 21-point lead in the polls. Miss Prim in Edinburgh is surely worth bundles of English votes to Mrs May.

It thus seems to be no contest on June 8. That might give rise to Tory complacency were its Europhile MPs not so stubbornly obtuse. They will have to decide whether loyally to support a government pledged to Brexit or opt for an uncertain future by joining the Liberal Democrats.

I suspect that most of them at any rate will recognise which side their bread is buttered and ignore the blandishments of Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader who has branded himself the comic of the hour by implying that you will change the country’s direction if you vote Lib Dem.

In fact, the significance of the election is not just whether one party – Labour – has a future as constituted at present, 
but also whether the Lib Dems are relevant any more.

As for the UK Independence Party, it has done its job in securing Brexit. Its only purpose now is to demonstrate its purity by trying to hold the country to a “hard” departure from the EU.

In these circumstances disgruntled Labour voters who strongly backed Brexit will have to decide whether to maintain their protest vote for Ukip or, given the grip of the Left on their party, switch to Mrs May who is dedicated to leaving the EU.

After all, that is her justification for appealing to the country over the heads of Europhiles.

My advice to Tony Blair, Lord Mandelson, Gordon Brown, Alastair Campbell et al is to go underground for the duration of the election.

They will not, of course, listen to a word I say. But my guess is that Momentum, Corbyn’s Trots in waiting, will be trying to shut them up.

For once, Momentum will be revealing an unexpected wisdom. After all, Corbyn cannot apparently command even half of Labour’s membership.

My guess is that the Tories will win 385 seats. What are political pundits for except to provide fun by putting their reputation on the line?