Cameron’s northern plight laid bare

A YouGov survey carried out earlier this month found 39 per cent of Northern voters say they would never vote Tory under any circumstances, and that 25 per cent do not know a single person who supports the party.

The results make grim reading for strategists at Conservative Party Campaign Headquarters, who know they must increase their vote share across a host of key marginals in West Yorkshire and the North West if they are to stand any chance of securing an outright majority in 2015.

The consolation for Mr Cameron is Labour faces similar challenges in the South, albeit to a lesser extent – 30 per cent of Southerners saying they would never vote for the Opposition party.

Anthony Wells, associate director at YouGov, said: “You find the same thing in the South with Labour, but not quite as pronounced. Even if there are (Northern) people who agree with Conservative policies on welfare or tax — and we can see that there are – they are not going to become Conservatives. If there aren’t any Conservatives in these areas, that is not something you will do.”

The Tories’ travails in the North have been well documented. The party does not have a single MP or local councillor in several major cities, including Sheffield and Manchester. Their problem appears to be largely image-related, with many Northern voters supportive of key policies on welfare reform and the economy.

The poll showed only 21 per cent of people in the North thought the Tories understood their area, and 20 per cent that the region is represented by the Tory leadership.

By contrast, the party’s pledge to cut immigration to tens of thousands was backed by 83 per cent of people in North and South alike. The welfare cap was backed by 79 per cent of Northern voters, and the help-to-buy mortgage scheme backed by two-thirds of people in both ends of the country.

Publicly, Mr Cameron has rejected suggestions the party may need to tailor its message for Northern voters.

He told the Yorkshire Post last year: “I think we’ve made some progress in the North of England. I think the last election, particularly in the North West and West Yorkshire, was pretty positive.

“I don’t see our problem particularly as a North-South problem.”

However, an essay by YouGov president Peter Kellner last month suggested Mr Cameron himself appears to be the issue, with Northerners “significantly more likely” to view the Prime Minister as “out of touch” than their Southern counterparts.

“Northerners dislike David Cameron,” he wrote.

“They are significantly more likely to say he is out of touch and lacks clear principles, and much less likely to say he is doing well as Prime Minister.

“And despite the comparable living standards and levels of optimism, Northerners are much more likely to think the coalition is ‘bad for people like you’.”

Some voices within the Tory Party are calling for a more tailored approach.

David Skelton, a Conservative think-tanker from the North East, has formed the Renewal campaign group, aimed at broadening the Tories’ appeal.

He told the Yorkshire Post in April: “If the Conservatives want to win marginal seats in the North and Midlands, they should think carefully before using language seen as demonising the public sector or trade union members.

“For the sake of their long-term political survival, Conservatives need to appeal to working-class voters.”