Clegg braced for bruising defeat in referendum on voting change

Although referendum votes are not being counted until this afternoon – and the official result is not expected until this evening – opinion polls have pointed to a comfortable victory for the No campaign as the public shows little appetite for electing MPs by the alternative vote (AV) system.

As the last poll of the bitter campaign projected a 28-point lead for the No campaign, the only threat to keeping the first past the post system appeared to be a low turnout, which many think would favour the Yes campaign.

Among supporters of AV, under which voters rank candidates in order of preference, the blame game was already getting under way last night as Labour’s former Foreign Secretary David Miliband claimed the “personality infighting” within the coalition had “got in the way of the issues”.

The Liberal Democrat MP for Bradford East, David Ward, admitted “something has gone wrong”, and said voters had been left confused over the issue.

“People have been told, this is complicated, there will be difficult unclear outcomes and so on and that argument seems to have prevailed,” he said.

Defeat would be a big blow for Deputy Prime Minister Mr Clegg, who had demanded the referendum as a condition for the Liberal Democrats joining the coalition Government and argued that AV was a fairer system. It would also be disappointing for Labour leader Ed Miliband, who backed the move to AV despite his party being split on the issue.

But it would be a huge relief for David Cameron, who would have faced fury from his party in the event of a Yes vote, with some Tory MPs still angry the referendum was offered to the Liberal Democrats in the first place.

However, it threatens a crisis for the coalition Government, as trust between the Liberal Democrats and Tories has been shattered by clashes.

These led to Liberal Democrat Energy Secretary Chris Huhne confronting the Prime Minister in this week’s Cabinet meeting and challenging him to disown material from the No camp.

Tory Minister Sir George Young, leader of the Commons, yesterday admitted that the campaign had caused “understandable tensions” between the two parties, but insisted the “divisions will heal” and the coalition will be “back in business” next week.

He said: “From next week we will be back in business, working together in the national interest, to get the economy back on its feet.”

Mr Ward also said defeat would have to be taken “on the chin” and the Liberal Democrats would simply have to “move on”.

Yesterday’s was the first nationwide referendum since 1975, when voters were asked whether they wanted to stay in the European Common Market. On that occasion there was a comfortable Yes vote.

Mr Clegg, the Sheffield Hallam MP, sought to play down the tensions yesterday but admitted “the temperature is rising”.

He said: “Feelings are rising high as you would expect at this stage of a referendum campaign.

“But at the end of the day it isn’t about what politicians think or feel or even say to each other, it’s about what people want.”

However, the last batch of polls all pointed to a comfortable win for the No campaign. An ICM survey for the Guardian gave the No camp a 36-point lead, YouGov for the Sun put the advantage at 20 points and Opinium Research for the Evening Standard found a 28-point lead for the No campaign,

Votes cast in the referendum will start to be counted at 4pm today.