Colin Mellors: Moment of truth arrives for polls in battleground seats

IT is not just the political leaders who will be nervous about today's election '“ so, too, will be the pollsters. They largely got it wrong in 2015, predicting that Labour would win most seats, if not outright victory. They fared only slightly better forecasting last year's EU referendum result.
Theresa May campaigned on Saturday in Dewsbury, one of the Tory target seats in the region.Theresa May campaigned on Saturday in Dewsbury, one of the Tory target seats in the region.
Theresa May campaigned on Saturday in Dewsbury, one of the Tory target seats in the region.

The 2015 errors were, in part, attributed to turnout. Expressing a preference is one thing, but there is no guarantee that those surveyed will actually vote. Those over 65 years are nearly twice as likely to vote as those under 25, which can exaggerate Labour’s poll rating. By contrast, exit polls, which remove uncertainty about whether people actually voted, are generally more accurate.

There is an additional issue – who will benefit from the likely fall in Ukip’s vote? In 2015, Ukip obtained 12.6 per cent of the vote nationally, coming second in 14 of Yorkshire and the Humber’s 54 constituencies. This time, their poll rating has rarely crept above four per cent which, along with that of the Liberal Democrats’ (around nine per cent), has been one of the more stable features of the polls. There are some other clear messages.

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First, as is often the case, the contest has seemingly become tighter as the campaign has progressed. When the election was announced on April 18, polls were indicating a 20-point plus Conservative lead, and the real prospect of a three-figure majority. According to many polls, that lead has slipped to single figures.

However, despite their apparent narrowing lead, the Conservative Party has remained consistently ahead throughout the last seven weeks. What this might mean in terms of seats, though, is more speculative, given the arithmetical complexities of our first-past-the-post voting system where overall vote share does not neatly translate into seats won.

Large majorities in safe seats simply equate to surplus votes that would be more useful in marginal constituencies.

Estimates range between a 50-70 seat majority for those polls that still show the Conservatives comfortably ahead, whilst those showing a narrower margin could leave them with most MPs but short of a majority.

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For Labour to overtake the Conservatives in terms of the number of MPs, assuming that the SNP holds most of their current seats, it is calculated that they would require a swing from the Conservatives approaching six per cent. More would be needed for outright victory.

Yorkshire, and the North generally, will be a key election battleground, and it is not surprising that both main parties launched their manifestos here.

If the Conservative Party can win over enough traditional Labour voters – including those who may have backed Ukip in 2015 and voted firmly to leave the EU last June – then an increased majority is achievable.

In contrast, Labour has focused on securing their core vote and ensuring that, this time, their younger supporters actually vote. Also, they have sought to win over some older voters on the back of the social care agenda.

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For the Conservatives, seats such as Halifax, Dewsbury, Wakefield and Scunthorpe need to be taken if they are to achieve a majority around the 50 mark. Halifax and Dewsbury, with their slim majorities (428 and 1451 respectively), rank sixth and 14th in their national target list. York has also attracted a good deal of interest but, being one of the northern areas that voted ‘Remain’ last year, might be more of a challenge.

If Labour aims to gain ground, then top of its local list will be Morley and Outwood. One of Labour’s highest-profile losses in 2015, a swing of less than 0.5 per cent would be sufficient to remove the slender 422 majority. Nationally, it is the Conservative Party’s sixth most vulnerable seat.

However, if Labour is to overtake the Conservative Party, then constituencies such as Keighley, Calder Valley, Pudsey and Colne Valley would need to be captured.

For the Liberal Democrats, the main task here is to hold Leeds North West and Sheffield Hallam.

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In mid-April, the outcome appeared clear cut. Now, it might be a closer contest – at least if the polls are correct in suggesting that the campaign really has changed voting intentions.

Then, of course, there is the factor that no-one anticipated – the terrorist attacks in Manchester and London. Both events changed the tone and focus of the campaign. It remains to be seen if they have also changed voters’ minds.

Pundits are becoming accustomed to surprises. Few might have foreseen that a victorious David Cameron in May 2015 would only survive one more year in 10 Downing Street, that a political outsider would occupy the White House or that a brand new party would come to power in the Elysée Palace.

Today’s election might not deliver the same level of surprise but, whatever the result, it is likely to mark a true political watershed.

Colin Mellors is Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of York.