New polling shows how Brexit could fundamentally shift Yorkshire's political landscape

Westminster has been shaken by the rapid change and shown itself to be slow to adapt. Voters have been much quicker, displaying increasing frustration with the inability of the main political parties to grasp the issue at May’s local and European elections.

Now new polling analysis, collected by the pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain and revealed by The Yorkshire Post shows the seismic impact which Brexit could have in a General Election.

Applying polling data from May to Yorkshire and the Humber’s 54 parliamentary seats, the analysis shows a devastating collapse in support for the Conservatives, with the party haemorrhaging votes to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.

The Tories would lose 11 seats, nine of which would go to the Brexit Party.

They would lose another to the Liberal Democrats – unseating Transport Minister Andrew Jones in Harrogate and Knaresborough – and one more to Labour in Calder Valley, which has been held by Craig Whittaker since 2010.

The results, though no doubt fuelled by the European election results, are nevertheless concerning for Conservative MPs in the region. As the party searches for a new leader to restore its shattered confidence, many of its MPs are concerned about how they would fare if a General Election came before Brexit.

Thirsk and Malton MP Kevin Hollinrake is one of those who would lose his seat to the Brexit Party, according to the data.

He told The Yorkshire Post: “It would all depend when that election came. I think if the election came before we had delivered Brexit we’d get a very bad result – a catastrophic result.

“So what we have got to do is deliver Brexit before we get to that point. But there is no doubt that the hardline Brexit parties and the people that are looking for a second referendum prospered in those EU elections. So, what we need to see is delivering Brexit as soon as possible and then we can hopefully move on to the better times ahead in terms of our electoral standing.”

Asked if he could see the Brexit Party gaining seats in Yorkshire and the Humber if a General Election was held before the scheduled EU departure date of October 31, he said: “I could. You can’t necessarily translate the results from those EU elections into other elections. There are other issues at play at that point in time. But nevertheless I think it could be a very bad result for us.

“The Brexit Party are a single issue party and they will always remain so, in my view. Ukip demonstrates that when the Brexit issue is off the agenda they fall away. So, I think you could definitely use the same parallel with the Brexit Party.”

“So if we deliver on Brexit, the Brexit Party falls away and we are in a position to gain ground again. At the moment it would be unthinkable to run into a General Election before that point.”

Outspoken Brexiteer and Morley and Outwood MP Andrea Jenkyns would also be under threat in her West Yorkshire constituency, with the analysis also predicting her losing her seat to the Brexit Party. She urged colleagues to choose the right leader to restore the party’s electoral standing in the region.

She said: “I think the poll shows how much Yorkshire people care about Brexit. I have realised this myself from being on the doorstep, from my surgeries, from speaking to people in the street, the correspondence I get. It is a big issue for people and for me as well. They want the Government to deliver on the referendum result, deal or no deal.

“And I think that’s why it’s so important over the next few weeks that the Conservatives choose a Brexiteer leader to leave the EU and get on with it. I don’t think we can go past the end of October. But I do think that with the right Prime Minister we can restore faith and trust.

“It takes a while to restore that faith and trust, but it is possible if we deliver.”

The other seven seats that the Conservatives would lose to the Brexit Party under the analysis are Beverley and Holderness, Brigg and Goole, Cleethorpes, East Yorkshire, Elmet and Rothwell, Scarborough and Whitby and Scunthorpe.

Labour would also suffer, but not to the same extent, with the party forecast to lose two strongholds – Great Grimsby and Rother Valley – to the Brexit Party.

Rother Valley MP Kevin Barron, who voted for Theresa May’s deal, blamed his party’s stance on the issue for the polling result.

He said: “The only way we can defeat the Brexit Party is by respecting the referendum by leaving the EU in an orderly way. Labour needs to stop breaking promises made to the electorate.”

However, the analysis also shows Jeremy Corbyn’s party losing one other constituency – to the Liberal Democrats. The MP who would be unseated in Leeds North West is People’s Vote supporter, Alex Sobel.

He said: “This poll is not good news, particularly for those who really need a Labour Government. It shows the need for Labour to unambiguously endorse a confirmatory vote.

“For those who want to stay in the EU, a clear policy will allow a hearing for all Labour’s policies to transform our country, but without it those policies won’t get the attention they deserve.”

Of the region’s two independent, both ex-Labour, MPs – Angela Smith in Penistone and Stocksbridge and Jared O’Mara in Sheffield Hallam – their South Yorkshire constituencies would be split seemingly along Brexit lines, although for both, local issues would undoubtedly come into play as well.

Ms Smith’s seat would be lost to the Brexit Party, while Mr O’Mara’s would fall to the Liberal Democrats, according to the projections.

Reflecting on the picture as a whole, Best for Britain chief executive officer Naomi Smith said: “The consequences of Labour’s ambivalent policy towards a final say on Brexit looks set to hurt them further.

“The Labour leadership now needs to pick a side, and with them losing three times as many votes to remain parties as they are to the Brexit Party, it is obvious which position they should take if they want to be in government.

“This report shows that Brexit votes are split between Farage’s party and the Conservatives. This should be a wake up call to internationalist MPs in all parties.

“If a new Conservative leader strikes a deal with Farage, future generations won’t forgive those internationalist MPs who fail to do the same, and strongly make the case for a final say on Brexit.”