Search for greener future in city left reeling by recession

Poo began a recent paper by Government officials assessing the world economy which found that by 2030, almost two thirds of the global population will live within the urban sprawl of a city.

Increasingly, analysts around the world see bustling, dynamic cities as the key factors in driving growth – not just within their confines but across much wider economic areas beyond.

It is a school of thought which has been seized upon in Whitehall.

“Cities are the engines of economic growth,” said Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg in a speech in Leeds last year. “We need our cities to be economic, social and cultural magnets – places people aspire to live.”

As the coalition rapidly dismantled the apparatus of regional government set up under 13 years of New Labour, what has replaced it is an increasingly cities-led approach.

To that end Mr Clegg has led a devolution drive, with vital controls over transport, skills training and infrastructure spending handed back to civic leaders via so-called City Deals.

What is now clear, however, is just how hard Yorkshire’s great cities have been hit by the economic crash.

Almost every urban centre has seen its forecast population growth slashed by the Office for National Statistics. Over the next 25 years, statisticians believe, York will now grow by 15 per cent – rather than the 26 per cent being predicted in 2008.

Leeds will grow by 20 per cent, still an impressive rate but a far cry from the 30 per cent forecast which until recently made it the fastest-growing city of the North.

By contrast, London, Manchester and many major urban centres across the South East have seen their population forecasts soar.

But most troubling is the revision for Hull, downrated from a predicted 22 per cent growth to a meagre seven per cent in the space of two years. In real terms, Hull is expected to expand by less than 20,000 people over the next quarter of a century.

The reason is all too clear. Few places in the country have been hit harder by the double-dip recession, with unemployment soaring and private sector growth stubbornly refusing to step in and fill the gap.

A study earlier this year by the Centre for Cities think-tank assessing the prospects for urban centres around the UK picked out Hull as being of particular concern.

“Cities such as London, Aberdeen and Milton Keynes are well placed to support the creation of the jobs and growth that will address the UK’s unemployment challenge,” it said. “Other cities such as Doncaster, Newport and Hull are likely to find the immediate future more difficult.

“Due to their weaker private sectors, low numbers of business start-ups, poorer skills profiles and greater exposure to public sector job cuts, these cities will remain vulnerable.”

Nonetheless, local politicians are optimistic the Hull of 2035 can prove radically different to the city which today struggles with an economy sometimes verging on basket-case status.

For what the number-crunchers at the ONS have failed to take account of is the coming boom in green energy.

Perched on the Humber estuary, within easy reach of the vast offshore wind farms due to be constructed in the North Sea over the next decade, Hull is perfectly placed to capitalise.

Charlie Spencer of local engineering giant Spencer Group believes renewables “can be a huge driver of growth and job-creation.”

Thousands of enormous turbines need to be constructed, shipped out to sea, installed and maintained. It will be an entire generation’s work.

Already Siemens has plans for a huge turbine factory at the Port of Hull, and others will surely follow.

With plans now progressing for long-overdue investment in the infrastructure around the port, and the roads that link to it, there is genuine hope that the Hull of 2035 can become something akin to the industrial powerhouse of years gone by.