Tom Richmond: PM faces toughest task of all as Brexit process starts

THE context is critical. If it requires games of political ping-pong between the Government and Parliament to establish the legal right to trigger Article 50, how on earth will Theresa May win backing for the final Brexit settlement with the EU?
Britain will begin the process of leaving the EU when Article 50 is triggered.Britain will begin the process of leaving the EU when Article 50 is triggered.
Britain will begin the process of leaving the EU when Article 50 is triggered.

This question should be uppermost in the minds of the Prime Minister as the 133-word Brexit Bill – one of the shortest ever – is finally activated after much to-ing and fro-ing at Westminster.

After all, it’s only taken nine months to reach this point after a majority of voters backed Britain’s exit from the European Union in a referendum endorsedby MPs by a majority of six to one. On this basis, what hope of unanimity down the line?

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As such, David Davis provided a nimble object lesson in expectation management when asked if he, as Brexit Secretary, had the most difficult job of all as divorce talks with the EU begin.

He suggested this dubious honour fell to Chancellor Philip Hammond because of the lingering legacy of Gordon Brown’s indebtedness rather than the fallout from last week’s Budget tax hike against the more wealthier self-employed, and which has become a potentially corrosive issue of trust at this critical juncture.

However the Prime Minister’s position is the most invidious of all. Not only does she have to contend with the economy and Brexit, but also the fallibilites of her less than sure-footed Brexit Ministers.

She has to secure a deal that satisfies the 52 per cent of the country that backed Leave, and the 48 per cent who endorsed the EU membership, without compromising trade or precipitating Scotland and/or Northern Ireland’s departures from the United Kingdom as SNP First Minister Nicola Sturgeon set out her plan for a second referendum on Scottish independence because she she fears a ‘hard Brexit’ that sees Britain leave the single market.

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And, even though no one has any experience of such a complex negotiation, the Prime Minister has to contend with all those critics who believe they can do a better job in the knowledge that her three Brexit Ministers – Mr Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson – never had a clear plan of action when they were winning the referendum with their anti-EU rhetoric.

As pro-EU Tory grandee Michael Heseltine warned ominously: “The truth of the matter is, those of us in politics, those who care, we are not performing fleas where the ringmaster says ‘jump’ and we all turn hands up over ourselves. We are not like that.”

If the talks do not go to plan, it will be the PM’s reputation which will be on the line. No one else. She might be riding high in the opinion polls at present, but this, in part, stems from Labour’s incoherence.

Even though Mr Davis demonstrated a certain bullishness – it’s his job to do so – the Government must contemplate every scenario, including the prospect of no satisfactory deal being reached, after David Cameron’s negligent and casual complacency failed to foresee Brexit.

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To her credit, there’s a steeliness to Mrs May. She has withstood a firestorm over the residency rights of EU nationals living and working here. Quite correctly, she did not want to make an early concession without securing reciprocal arrangements for UK citizens working and residing in Europe. Mr Cameron would not have been as astute.

That said, Mrs May – and her team – have a duty to keep the country informed about the progress of negotiations before the final deal is approved or vetoed. After all, Parliamentary sovereignty was a defining issue of the referendum and her ‘no running commentary’ mantra does not work, as evidenced by the legal machinations over the triggering of Article 50 and the PM being compelled to set out her vision and priorities to diplomats.

Though Labour’s disarray provides political cover, it would be Cameron-like hubris for Ministers to assume that they’re fire-proof because there’s no credible Opposition. Indeed, it’s even more reason to show the quality of leadership that families and businesses have previously been denied.

This is why. Many attribute Britain’s economic resilience since last June to Brexit. However it’s equally plausible that this is the proverbial calm before the storm and still fragile business confidence will erode once the complexity of the Government’s task becomes plain – and the ‘no running commentary’ defence will alienate those whose jobs, or living standards, might be imperilled.

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If Mrs May expects the talks to be conducted in secret, she is naive in the extreme. Governments leak, as exemplified by the Cabinet fallout following the Budget and the ‘blame game’ now being played out after a relatively minor tax hike misfired. Never before in peacetime has the notion of collective Cabinet responsibility been more important.

Perhaps Theresa May’s best hope, ahead of forthcoming events to mark 
the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome which paved the way for the 
EU, is that Europe finally comes to its senses following divisive elections in Holland, France and Germany and accepts that it needs Britain more than we need them.

Given it is the inflexibility and intransigence of Brussels which has led to this moment in time, it’s a pretty forlorn hope. Good luck, Mrs May – you will need it. Just getting this far is nothing compared to what, I fear, lies ahead.