Pro-Leave areas like Yorkshire '˜most exposed' to risks of Brexit, report warns

In a comprehensive new report marking one year since the referendum, members of the UK in a Changing Europe research group conclude that areas where support for Brexit was high last year are also those which face being “the most adversely affected”.

Published as the government sets out plans to introduce eight Brexit-related bills in Parliament, the document contrasts their position with that of pro-Remain cities and regions such as London, which are typically “far less dependent” on Europe for their prosperity.

But while these areas are likely to be well-represented in talks and consultations, many of the smaller towns and rural areas which voted strongly to leave risk having no voice at the table.

“Until now, much of the discussion on Brexit... has overlooked the fact that the specific details of the final UK-EU agreement are likely to have very different impacts on different parts of the UK,” the report states.

“[But] in economic terms, the UK and its regions are far more exposed to Brexit trade-related risks than regions in any other EU member state except the Republic of Ireland.

“Indeed, the regions which voted Leave tend to be the regions which are most dependent on EU markets for their prosperity.

“This strongly suggests that it is the UK’s weaker regions which are most exposed to Brexit... [and] that the economic strength of the UK’s negotiating position is far weaker than most of the UK public understands.”

The findings from the King’s College group echo similar warnings from the independent think tank IPPR North. In its last State of the North report, the IPPR revealed that local economies in areas like Yorkshire are between 50-100 percent more reliant on trade with the EU than the capital.

This led to calls for greater engagement between government and the regions to ensure its needs and trade interests are factored into negotiations. The One Year On study notes these calls, but suggests that cities and regions may only become “more involved in the process” once the potential impact of leaving the EU “starts to become clearer”.

Other findings by the group include a warning about the possible consequences of Brexit for the UK’s environmental standards.

The Government has stated that it intends to transfer all EU legislation into British law – including measures relating to the environment – when it brings forward the Repeal Bill.

However, the researchers suggest that without European Institutions like the Courts of Justice to enforce environmental targets and regulations there is a “significant possibility” that policy will be weakened post-Brexit. The report points to the recent legal dispute over the Government’s air quality strategy as an example, stating that outside the EU there will be less “leverage” for environmental groups to challenge ministers.

Several of the report’s authors have dismissed claims that Britain could be heading for a much softer form of Brexit as a result of the Prime Minister’s reduced majority. Speaking at a launch event in London, they suggested the UK may even be on course for a harder, potentially “chaotic” Brexit, as a result of the Tories’ increased reliance on ex-Ukip supporters.