Speeding up

ONLY last year, fourth-generation mobile networking (4G) was chosen by readers of The Economist magazine as the technology with the most potential to change society. 4G networks, which are now being switched on, promise to bring broadband to the developing world and make it ubiquitous in wealthier countries.

Fine, in principle, but no one should get carried away just yet – particularly not the Government which is rubbing its hands in anticipation of another bonanza to rival the 3G auction of 11 years ago. In Germany, where 4G licences were auctioned last year, mobile companies paid only £3.7bn, a far cry from the £22.5bn raised by the UK Treasury in 2000.

Technology, it seems, is rapidly outpacing not only its customers but also its providers. Most of the world, after all, is still busily rolling out 3G networks and, although global mobile subscriptions are predicted to top six billion by 2014, around four billion of this will still be 2G technology.

When the Government goes to auction early next year, selling the spectrum made available by the switch-off of analogue TV, it may face a distinctly underwhelming reaction from reluctant operators who have yet to recoup their 3G investment. The predicted explosion in next-generation broadband might be much needed, but no one should hold their breath waiting for the big bang.