All eyes on Al Qaida as world waits for reprisals

While his death will come as a “major blow” for the terrorist organisation, the American “triumph” could lead to serious reprisals, they warned.

John Gearson, reader in terrorism studies and director of the Centre for Defence Studies at King’s College London, said organisations across the globe were now likely to “ramp up” their security.

“I think the significance of what has happened cannot really be overstated,” he said.

“I would expect embassies and military bases around the world to be on high alert for some time.

“There will be concerns that there could be some sort of retaliation, that al Qaida may well want to demonstrate that they are still strong and still in the game.

“The danger is that the Americans may well lose their focus, that they will relax and that will provide an opportunity for the remnants of al Qaida to reform and grow stronger.

“Al Qaida will remain a major security concern.”

Former British Army colonel Richard Kemp, commander of British forces in Afghanistan in 2003, echoed his fears, suggesting the Taliban could now look to bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, for leadership.

“I think this is not the end of al Qaida by any means,” he told the BBC.

“They will try and recover, they will undoubtedly try and strike back in some form. I don’t suppose they will manage a major attack but they will try and strike back in some form in the short term, in retaliation for the death of bin Laden.

“And meanwhile, others will take on his mantle. Al Zawahiri, his number two, will presumably step up to lead al Qaida now ... this is a major blow for al Qaida and a lot of their supporters will now sit back and think.”

British embassies around the world were today put on heightened security alert amid concerns of possible reprisal attacks by al Qaida following the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Foreign Secretary William Hague said that elements of al Qaida were still “in business” and they would need to be vigilant for “some time to come”.

“This is not the end of being vigilant against al Qaida and associated groups,” he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

“There may be parts of al Qaida that will try to show that they are in business in the coming weeks, as indeed some of them are.

“So I have already this morning asked our embassies to review their security to make sure that vigilance is heightened and I think that will have to be our posture for some time to come.”

Mr Hague added: “This is a very serious blow to al Qaida but, like any organisation that has suffered a serious blow, they will want to show in some way that they are still able to operate.”

The Foreign Secretary, visiting the Egyptian capital Cairo, said the “removal” of bin Laden was a “very, very positive development”.

“It is unequivocally a good thing that he is no longer able to pursue terror, murder and mayhem in the world,” he said.

But he stressed that it did not mean an end to the international military mission in Afghanistan, from where al Qaida launched the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

“Just as we should be clear that this is an important and positive development, we should also be clear that the problems we are dealing with have not gone away,” he said.

“We will still have to be vigilant, even more vigilant, in the coming days about the international terrorist threat.

“The work in Afghanistan will continue to be phenomenally difficult and must go on. So it would be wrong to draw the conclusion that suddenly we have solved a mass of the world’s problems.”

Mr Hague acknowledged that there had been a “general assumption” that bin Laden was hiding in the mountainous, tribal regions of Pakistan rather than the area around the capital, Islamabad.

But he added: “I don’t think we’re surprised by anything any more.”

Former home secretary and defence secretary Lord Reid warned that there should not be the “least bit of complacency” following bin Laden’s death.

“I would caution against premature celebration. Al Qaida have lost a major, major figure but they are not finished. It is precisely at this time that our opponents are at their most dangerous,” he told the Today programme.

Frank Faulkner, a senior lecturer in sociology and terrorism studies at the University of Derby, said revenge attacks in the aftermath of bin Laden’s death were on the horizon, adding: “It’s just a case of when and where.”

“Every security operation in the world will be on the highest state of alert in readiness for any kind of attack by al Qaida,” he said.

“It is not going to come straightaway but al Qaida will want to show that it still has the capability to exact force against its perceived enemies.

“It is all about when and where.

“You can’t possibly estimate how it will take place or where, but there will be some sort of situation arriving at some time.”

While the Taliban’s objective will be to hit back at the US, Britain will also be a “legitimate target” because of its close association with the superpower, he said.

But there is unlikely to be an immediate retaliation because al Qaida will know that defences are being bolstered in the aftermath of bin Laden’s death, making it “almost impossible” to launch a successful assault on the West, he said.

His warnings came as Americans celebrated their “victory” in Pakistan, which is expected to bring some form of closure for many of the victims of the September 11 terror attacks.

While Dr Gearson termed the development “a great day for Americans”, Dr Faulkner urged caution.

“Just because you have decapitated the leadership of al Qaida doesn’t necessarily mean the organisation has been beaten because it obviously has not,” he said.

“It is only part of the way towards eradicating the whole organisation - it is far from the end.”

Professor Paul Wilkinson, chair of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews, said the death of bin Laden would not spell the end of al Qaida.

Asked about the possibility of al Qaida carrying out a revenge attack, he told BBC Scotland: “I think it’s highly likely, and I think President Obama was right to caution that there was likely to be an upsurge in terrorism as a result of the killing of bin Laden and certainly there shouldn’t be any hasty winding down of the specialist services that counter terrorism in the international community. I think that would a great mistake.

“It’s true that al Qaida has suffered a huge setback in the Middle East because it’s been effectively marginalised in the Arab awakening. People want democratic reform and freedom in the Middle East and, of course, democracy is the last thing that al Qaida want. They hate it, they regard it as a kind of western disease.

“Their real base of activity, the most important part of their activity, is in south and south west Asia and it would be a great mistake to think that that is going to stop any time soon. They are very deeply entrenched there, they are still recruiting large numbers of suicide bombers and they are still carrying out mass casualty attacks.”

He added: “It would be very dangerous to assume that the death of Bin Laden means that journalists can write the obituary of al Qaida.”

Professor Paul Wilkinson, a counter-terrorism expert at St Andrews University, warned there was “no simple military solution” to terrorism.

“You can’t beat terrorism on the battlefield alone,” he said.

“To expect them to carry the whole burden is quite unrealistic.”

While the military had proved very effective in carrying out specialist operations, there was a broader battle to be won, he said.

International efforts to win “young hearts and minds” must continue.

“The creation of a new generation of suicide bombers from young, alienated, angry Muslims would be a very serious blow.”

Prof Wilkinson, chairman of the advisory board for the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, said al Qaida “recovered after the huge setback of losing control over Afghanistan” and could do so again.

“It adapted and used the internet to a great extent to make up for the loss of training camps,” he said.

“And it will adapt again.

“In the short term, it’s not unrealistic to expect that some extremists will try to create more attacks in order to prove they’re still in business and to avenge the killing of their leader.”

But he added that the benefits of bin Laden’s death would be seen in the longer term.

“I think it’s a blow to the al Qaida network in the broadest sense,” he said.

“He was, after all, the charismatic father figure, the one who has been the most effective propagandist and recruiter for al Qaida.

“It’s undoubtedly a blow but it’s not going to mean the end of their activities, that would be a far too simplistic view.

“Parts of it will continue to wage a campaign of terror.

“And there is no doubt there will be efforts from extremists to avenge the killing.

“I don’t think they will have given up the ambitions of attacking western countries - it’s part of their belief system that we’re all infidels.

“They believe such attacks are perfectly legitimate and that Allah will be behind them.”

Prof Wilkinson went on: “It’s important that we don’t wind down the expert co-operation and resources being developed internationally to prevent and combat terrorism.”

Measures to review security at British embassies across the world were “very sensible”, he said.

He said al Qaida is such a complex hydra-headed network with cells in so many countries that it would be wrong to think it was just going to stop.

Second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri, who has issued a number of statements on behalf of the terror group, was likely to take over its leadership, “at least in the interim”.

Zawahiri is a key strategist for al Qaida, but may still face an internal challenge for the leadership, Prof Wilkinson said.

Professor Anthony Glees, director of the centre for security and intelligence studies at the University of Buckingham, said the American operation could have been behind the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge’s decision to remain in the UK following their wedding.

“I would not be surprised if the reason the royal honeymoon was put off had to do with forewarning that this might be happening and that security for the young couple could not be guaranteed at this moment in time,” he said.

“The Government would probably have been told that now would not be a good time for the royal couple to travel off to the other side of the world.

“Clearly, wherever they would be going, they would be outside the ring of steel that the authorities could provide for them in the UK.”

A Palace spokesman said William and his bride had made their decision to stay in the country “weeks ago”.

“It was their personal choice,” she said.