Number of retail stores ‘to fall by 22pc in five years’

A NEW report released today claims the total number of UK retail stores will fall by 22 per cent over the next five years.

Retail Futures 2018, produced by Professor Joshua Bamfield from the Centre for Retail Research, forecasts the number of stores will drop from 281,930 today to 220,000 in 2018.

Estimated job losses of 316,000 will cause the UK’s unemployment rate to increase by almost 13 per cent on its current level, while store vacancy rates could almost double to 24 per cent in the same period.

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The report put the increased number of empty high street down to three key factors – business failures, the reduction of stores by large retailers and entrepreneurs’ reluctance to start new businesses or to take on new stores.

Professor Joshua Bamfield said: “The performance of the retail sector has been thrust into the media spotlight in the past two years as the Government formed an alliance with celebrity retail expert Mary Portas.

“The subsequent report set out a range of initiatives to breathe life back into the high street. This is a mammoth task which requires high levels of funding and extremely tight management, both of which are challenging, to say the least.

“High streets need to combine the enthusiasm generated by Mary Portas with realistic and well-managed plans. The focus should be on declining secondary and tertiary sites in lower income areas.

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Retail Futures 2018 recommends a pump priming fund of £320m to start redeveloping problem town centres, turn empty shops into residential accommodation, create more service, entertainment and leisure outlets and provide offices, doctor’s surgeries, classrooms, meeting rooms and other facilities for which there may be local demand.

“Areas such a Wales, where such drastic demise is predicted, would benefit greatly from re-engineering of this kind. This is just the start of an ongoing investment requirement. The March 2013 budget saw the Government promising to invest £130bn to help people buy property; our proposal would actually help create new accommodation.”

The high street’s share of consumer spending continues to decline from 50 per cent in 2000 to a predicted 40.2 per cent in 2014, as more people shop online.

Online sales are set to account for 21.5 per cent of total retail sales by 2018, up from 12.7 per cent today. Online retailers in the UK have the highest share of total retail sales in the world.

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Store vacancy rates across the country have increased from 5.4 per cent in December 2008 to 14.1 per cent in March 2013, a rise of 161 per cent.

The report forecasts that over the next five years, more than a third (41 per cent) of struggling town centres could see 27,638 store closures. The largest fall will occur in Wales (29 per cent) while the lowest will be in London (nine per cent).

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