Squeeze on police budgets could lead to more crime, leading think tank warns

But policing works and the more crime officers detect, the more crime they prevent, an analysis published by Civitas found.

Economist Siddhartha Bandyopadhyay warned the squeeze put on police through the Government’s 20 per cent budget cuts and the most comprehensive review of pay in more than 30 years could “encourage” criminality.

“The perception that police are stretched may encourage criminals to commit more crime which would indeed stretch the police,” he said.

But his study found that even a modest increase in detection rates led to “visible reductions in crime”.

A one percentage point rise in detection rates leads to 22,500 fewer theft and handling offences, 6,000 fewer burglaries and 2,300 fewer violent offences on average, the figures showed.

“Improved detection rates not only have a direct impact by reducing current crime; they also lower future crime,” Dr Bandyopadhyay said. “The welfare gains from effective policing can be enormous.

“Our own analysis suggests that policing interventions are important determinants of crime rates while frequently cited economic and social factors are not so closely linked.”

Factors such as prison population, unemployment rate, wage rate and the proportion of young people in the population all have weaker links with the crime rate, he said.

The study looked at data from the 43 forces across England and Wales between 1992 and 2008 and comes as Yorkshire’s four forces prepare to shed more than 2,000 posts next year as they begin the task of overcoming a £200m budget shortfall by 2015.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “The Government has a clear plan to cut crime, putting in place democratic accountability with the introduction of Police and Crime Commissioners, cutting bureaucracy and red tape and supporting forces to get officers back on the streets doing what they should be doing – fighting crime.

“We believe forces can make the necessary savings while protecting the frontline, prioritising the visibility and availability of policing.

“There is no simple relationship between numbers of police and the level of crime.

“Despite officer numbers reaching record levels...what really matters is how effectively officers are deployed.”