Web test predicts chances of cancer survival

It is designed to offer greater accuracy through inputting data such as age, whether the tumour was detected by screening or the patient finding a lump, width of tumour and the grade of cancer.

Patients and doctors are then given a prediction of how likely the person is to survive for the next five or 10 years, and any extra benefits from drug treatment.

The tool, called Predict, is free and was developed by a team led by Professor Gordon Wishart, director of the Cambridge breast unit at Cambridge University Hospitals. Experts used data from East Anglia on more than 5,600 patients.

That was then cross-referenced with data from the West Midlands to ensure an accurate picture could be built up of cancer survival across Britain.

The East of England data included a mix of hospitals, including general hospitals and teaching trusts. The plan is to continually update the website as more data becomes available.

It is based on a study published in the journal Breast Cancer Research in January.

Prof Wishart said: “This new model uses large numbers of UK women diagnosed and treated in the NHS in recent times where we had up-to-date, accurate patient records as well as survival data.

“It is important for patients to work with their specialist to choose the right drug treatment following breast cancer surgery.

“This choice depends heavily on accurate prediction of prognosis. Clinicians can use this model to involve patients as core participants in informed decisions about which treatment to use and how aggressive to be.”

Senior policy officer at Breakthrough Breast Cancer Meg McArthur said the tool was useful but patients should discuss the findings with their doctor.

“This website could help the partnership between patients and healthcare professionals and potentially lead to improved treatment choices.

“We would encourage that Predict is only used and discussed in consultation with a doctor to ensure that the patient’s assessment is accurate.”

The website, which can be found at www.predict.nhs.uk, is supported by an unrestricted educational grant from the pharmaceutical firm Pfizer.

It comes as separate research published in the British Journal of Cancer showed that studying calcium deposits in breast tissue can help doctors more accurately diagnose tumours. Some patterns of calcium deposits in the breast can show that cancer is growing, although patients currently need further tests.

In the latest research, experts used infrared light to measure the chemical make-up of 236 deposits from 110 patients.

They found that patients whose tumours were benign had deposits with a higher carbonate content than those who had malignant cancer tumours.

They also found a direct link between the chemical make-up of the calcium deposits and the seriousness of the breast cancer.

The finding could mean patients avoid having a biopsy in future in favour of a test which looks at the make-up of calcium deposits. In malignant cases, the test could also give an early indication of how advanced the cancer is.

Professor Nicholas Stone, an author on the study from Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, said: “Testing calcifications with light would be a non-invasive method that could help doctors determine whether a woman has any aggressive tumours in her breasts alongside having a mammogram.

“This could help many thousands of women avoid the anxiety of having a biopsy and then waiting for the result.”

Director of health information at Cancer Research UK Sara Hiom said: “The NHS screening programme is important in detecting breast cancer and saving lives.

“These results suggest that developing a test for calcifications could further improve screening by providing a more detailed diagnosis about the tumour and potentially avoiding the need for biopsies in some cases.”