What next for Middle East?

THE outcome of the last 18 tumultuous days in Egypt was, in the end, predictable. It became a question of when people power would bring down Hosni Mubarak. But now he has finally bowed to the inevitable, the next 18 days and longer will provide a far greater challenge to the Egyptian people – and the rest of the world – once last night’s euphoria dissipates.
By The Newsroom
Published 12th Feb 2011, 06:00 BST

The jubilant scenes in Tahrir Square were comparable to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. They could be just as far-reaching. The mass of humanity celebrating this “winter revolution” was a tribute to all those who realised that peaceful protest was the best means to bring down an autocratic leader who has ruled by emergency decree for 30 years.

Their dignified persistence, in the face of an enormous State apparatus that deployed thugs against them, will resonate globally. A victory for democracy following the successful uprising in Tunisia, this revolution showed the power of social media which a technologically-savvy generation deployed against their arrogant, and out-of-touch, leaders.

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Nevertheless, the future of Egypt and the Middle East will be determined by the circumstances that brought Mubarak to power, and the unprecedented events that brought about his downfall.

He became President following the 1981 assassination of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, a man who brokered a successful peace deal with neighbouring Israel. Maintaining this accord remains paramount. Egypt, the biggest country in this region, continues to be pivotal. However, it will be in a better position to champion fairness, freedom and hope if its more benign leadership spreads throughout the Arab world. Many in the West – including Britain and America – now have to question whether it was right to sustain Mubarak’s regime for so long.

One reason was the fear of the unknown once Mubarak was removed, and the inevitable knock-on consequences for the Middle East. This, perhaps, explains why the reaction of world leaders like Barack Obama and David Cameron has been perceived as somewhat hesitant and muted.

The priority of the new High Council of Armed Forces, which has assumed control, is to alleviate the West’s doubts and to facilitate free elections.

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Having chosen not to deploy its arsenal of weapons against the demonstrators, the military’s role is a simple one – to maintain the rule of law while the building blocks for a free society, and civilian rule, are put in place.

This people’s revolution provides Egypt with an historic and precious opportunity that could not have been envisaged 18 days ago. The ultimate prize – the tantalising prospect of a new dawn for a democratic Egypt – must not now be denied her citizens by any elements of the Army abusing the short-term void created by Mubarak’s belated departure. The military must side with the people through the uncertain times that inevitably lie ahead.

Related topics:Egypt