Warning as rebels prepare to take command

WARNINGS were issued last night about the future of Libya as Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s regime appeared on the brink of collapse.

The revolution has been led by the National Transitional Council (NTC), but Libya has traditionally divided on tribal lines.

Experts suggested fair distribution of the country’s vast oil wealth could play a key part in securing a peaceful future for the country.

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Imad El-Anis, of Nottingham Trent University, said he was cautiously optimistic the NTC, which has announced it will move its headquarters from Benghazi in the east to Tripoli, would be able to unite the country.

But a major test would be bringing the various groups of armed revolutionaries under a single command as a national security force.

Mr El-Anis said the NTC should get the oil flowing again and use the money to fund projects across the country and show that “this is not going to be another experience where a small elite has all the oil wealth”.

“If the NTC can ensure that it is a very diverse group that represents people from all the major cities in Libya then it can be quite a stable government, at least in order to establish institutions and structures,” he said.

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The new government would also need to involve Libya’s various tribes, including Gaddafi’s own tribe and representatives from the dictator’s birthplace Sirte.

Shashank Joshi, of the Royal United Services Institute, said the initial problem would be to restore order to the streets of Tripoli.

“The principal focus has to be on restoring law and order to Tripoli. A criminality outbreak and looting would discredit faith in the NTC and would allow competing groups to outflank them,” he said.

“What they need to focus on is allowing the democratic process to take shape rather than imposing anything on anyone.

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“Expectations are enormous. In some ways they have over-promised. They should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.”

Libyan former jihadist Noman Benotman, now a senior analyst with the counter-extremism think tank the Quilliam Foundation, said there were militant Islamist elements within the revolutionary movement and he warned that the challenge for the NTC would be to “rationalise” them to participate in a democratic Libya.

Salem El-Maiar, from the Society for Libyan Studies, said care would be needed to make sure that anger did not spill over in the wake of Gaddafi’s defeat.

“In the immediate term, the important thing is to pacify the revenge and hatred and irrational events that could occur. Forty-two years is a long time,” he said.

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Mr El-Maiar said that Libyans who have had land and assets seized in the past would need to be “extremely patient” and wait to see if they could get their property back. He said he wanted to see the Gaddafis tried in Libya rather than the Hague.

Libyan charge d’affaires to Britain Mahmud Nacua said the rebuilding of Libya would be the start of a “difficult time”, but there was a need for reconciliation between all the parts of the oil-rich country.

Maj Gen Tim Cross, who was involved in efforts to rebuild Iraq, said there was now a need to switch focus to humanitarian assistance and immediate reconstruction work in the country.

“The longer-term issue is the governance and the rule of law and security and then developing the economic lines of operation alongside all the other aspects of it, so yes the difficult time really does start now.”

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Fawaz Gerges, of the London School of Economics Middle East Centre, added that this was “a moment of self-determination”.

“The big question is whether the rebels will be able to put out a transparent and genuine inclusive government that bring in the tribes, bring in all elements of society.

“Remember, for the last 42 years Gaddafi has ruined civil society, devoured state and society, so you have no really no institutions and it has to be done block by block from the bottom up.”