Yorkshire's rural north set for surge in ethnic minorities

In the second part of a major investigation into the region's growing population, the Yorkshire Post today reveals predictions that dramatic social shifts over the first half of this century will see North Yorkshire and Kirklees become home to the region's largest proportions of ethnic minority people behind Bradford by 2051.

The forecasts are based on expected population changes, as ethnic minority families currently living in urban areas grow increasingly affluent and move out into the countryside.

Foreign migrant workers who moved to rural parts of the UK for work will also settle long term and have families, according to the in-depth analysis by scientists at Leeds University.

The study concludes that around 30 per cent of people living in rural North Yorkshire will be of non-white British descent in 2051, a larger proportion than is predicted for Leeds or Sheffield.

In Kirklees the figure is even higher, at 32 per cent, while the non-white British population of Bradford is forecast to have passed the 50 per cent mark by 2051. The predictions, if accurate, would represent a dramatic shift for North Yorkshire in particular, which is currently nearly 97 per cent white-British.

The figures have been hailed by community workers as a step towards creating a "richer, more diverse" Yorkshire. Council bosses say they welcome the diversity, but may have to adapt their services in the future to cope.

"This will make North Yorkshire much stronger, much greater in terms of knowledge and skills," said community cohesion officer Nasr Emam.

Unsurprisingly, recent immigration figures play a key role in the predicted changes. The number of ethnic minority people in Britain has risen sharply over the past decade, as people from other countries have moved to the UK to work. Yorkshire has proved a strong draw – official figures for 2007 show only London and the east of England had higher rates of international immigration.

In addition, the birth rate among non-white British mothers is significantly higher than among white British women.

An analysis by the Yorkshire Post reveals the number of babies born in Yorkshire to non-British mothers almost doubled over the last decade. In Leeds, the figure was two-and-a-half times what it was in 2001, and in Hull the number increased fourfold. In Bradford, more than one in three of the babies born last year had non-British mothers. The result, according to a separate report into migratory trends carried out for regional development agencies, is that "there are profound changes in ethnic composition in store".

Prof Philip Rees, who helped author the report for Leeds University, stressed the unreliable nature of any long-term predictions, but described the eventual movement of affluent minorities into the countryside as "a natural continuation" of current trends.

He said: "For example, (the study shows that) the Indian group grows most (in North Yorkshire), as it has most resources to migrate into the desirable towns and villages of accessible North Yorkshire.

"We have already seen suburban movement of Indians between 1991 and 2001 in Leeds and Bradford. Movement into North Yorkshire is a natural continuation."

His projections have received the backing of Mr Emam, who believes such trends are already well under way on the ground.

"I think it will (eventually) be even more than 20 to 30 per cent in areas like Scarborough and Skipton," Mr Emam said.