Can Murray win Wimbledon? Not if dominant trio continue to hold sway

A quick glance at the last 10 grand slams, all of them won by Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer, suggest the old sage McEnroe is spot on.

Murray is convinced he is closer than ever to a triumvirate who would have dominated no matter what era they played.

But as another Wimbledon dawns, it is hard to make the case for Murray breaking the dominance of that trio, with Djokovic and Nadal particularly daunting.

That is not a slight on the Scot, who although he appears to relish the challenge of raising his game to try to topple these three giants of the sport, must go to bed at night wishing he had played in a more open era.

Such is the dominance of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer – through their talent, temperament, tactics and fitness – it would be foolhardy to look anywhere else for a winner come Sunday week.

“Can Murray win Wimbledon?”

Sadly, probably not this year.

But not for the lack of trying.

Murray is a fine player, comfortably the fourth best player in the world.

He has the occasional brain freeze, but he certainly has the shot selection and the stamina to compete with the best.

To this tennis viewer, it is his serve that will forever be his Achilles heel.

The statistics bear that out. Murray’s first-serve percentage this year is only 60 per cent compared to the high 60s of Djokovic and Nadal. And while the top three in the world are ranked in the top five on points won on the second serve, Murray is down in 27th.

In short, his serve is broken far too frequently.

There is also the issue of the mental edge the top three have on Murray.

He has beaten them in regular ATP tour finals and the occasional grand slam semi-final, but on his three previous major final appearances he has failed to take a set off Federer (twice) and Djokovic.

The big players win the big points, as was evident last year at SW19 when in his third successive Wimbledon semi-final, he came unstuck against Nadal.

Murray faded badly after playing a brilliant opener, his hopes seeming to disappear with an over-hit backhand early in the second set.

The main stick with which Murray’s critics beat him is his demeanour on court, the 25-year-old’s tendency to rage at himself and others when things are not going well that many believe envelops him in negative energy he cannot afford.

Those margins can be the difference between winning and losing matches and titles in this most demanding era.

“It is everybody else that judges it, not me,” said Murray. “I could say nothing on the court, lose the match, come off and I would be told I was flat on the court.

“Or I could have the most positive match and lose the match and nobody would talk about it, so to me all that is important is winning the matches.

“I speak with the guys that I work with and do all the right things in practice and in the gym and work hard and see where that gets me.

“Whether I am saying anything on the court, getting pumped up or whatever, it is kind of irrelevant unless I am winning matches.”

In the last six grand slams, Murray has been beaten by either Nadal or Djokovic five times, four times in the semi-finals and once in the final.

The latter came at the Australian Open last year, where the one-sided defeat by Djokovic hit Murray so hard that, doubting himself and everything he was doing, he did not win a match for more than two months.

The one time the Scot did not reach the last four was earlier this month at the French Open, where he was beaten in the quarter-finals by David Ferrer.

That prompted McEnroe’s comment about the gap increasing, and though it is unfair to judge Murray on his weakest surface, the top three – Nadal and Djokovic in particular – seemingly have no flaws.

Murray’s optimism for his seventh Wimbledon bid stems largely from his form on the hard courts earlier this season.

The Scot played one of the best matches of his career in an epic semi-final against Djokovic in Australia and, although he lost a close fifth set, he came away feeling it had been a big step forward.

Murray said: “I think on clay that is the surface I have probably been further away than the other surfaces. But I won against Djokovic in Dubai after the Australian Open and played some good tennis on the hard courts in the States.

“To me, the slams are what I am going to be judged on and that was the closest I had come, compared with how I had played against Djokovic in the final in Australia the previous year. It was much closer so I feel like I am playing better tennis than a year ago.”

On whether he can end Britain’s 76-year wait for a men’s champion, Murray said: “I need to believe it is going to happen.

“There is not much point in playing if I don’t think I could win Wimbledon or any of the grand slams or be competitive.”

It is the sportsman’s mentality, and long may he have that, but for the armchair fan it is hard to look beyond a fifth successive grand slam final between Nadal and Djokovic. And if optimists point to Federer being on the wane, there can be no question the Swiss raises his game for his beloved Wimbledon. Murray must keep looking forward because if any gap is shortening, it is the one he heads above the chasing pack.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could have, and should have beaten Djokovic at the French Open, Tomas Berdych is a threat, Juan Martin Del Potro is back to something like his best, Milos Raonic is the up and coming man, and Ferrer is brimming with confidence.

Murray has certainly made improvements since linking up with coach Ivan Lendl at the end of last year.

Having Lendl by his side must be a positive, a man who, like Murray, played in one of the toughest eras in tennis but survived losing his first four grand slam finals to go on to win eight.

Murray has lost three. While ever he is putting himself within touching distance, he has a chance.

It is just hard to see him breaking through over the next fortnight.