Wounded Australians must not be taken lightly in Ashes battle

Cricket fans could be forgiven for a sense of deja vu when the first Test begins in Brisbane on Thursday.

Just 13 weeks after the teams last locked horns, the whole shemozzle is about to start again.

The question is, will the script be any different, or will England beat the old enemy for a fourth successive series – something that has not happened since 1890?

The bookmakers certainly fancy their chances, which is normally a useful indication.

Last time I checked, William Hill and Ladbrokes were offering England at 10-11, with Australia 13-8 and the drawn series 9-2.

Now I’m no betting man, but as fence-sitting is frowned on in the media game, I’ll have an imaginary flutter on Australia winning the Ashes back at 13-8.

Why, depending on the weather and the position of the planets above Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, I take Michael Clarke’s men to win 3-2, 3-1 or 2-1.

Okay, so it’s no more than a hunch – one that could easily turn out to be wrong (just like most of my hunches, in fact).

But I think Australia can upset the form book and halt England’s impressive run of success, which continued with a 3-0 victory on these shores last summer.

In truth, the forthcoming series is one that fits into the category “could go either way”, which is why it is such a mouthwatering prospect – much more so, I would suggest, than the one just gone.

Australia have home advantage, which evens things up more, but Alastair Cook’s England deservedly start the five-match contest as favourites.

On paper, England should win – and questions will rightly be asked if they do not given their meticulous attention to detail on and off the field (quinoa and goji berries anyone?).

The tourists have the better batting line-up and the considerable trump card of James Anderson with the ball. But will the likes of Stuart Broad, Chris Tremlett and Steven Finn provide the necessary support and, if you pardon the term, come to the barbie?

Or will Australia’s top-six prosper from a more settled look than it had last time on pitches that should more suit its strengths?

How Australia bat is going to be key, with Michael Clarke the only recognised truly world class player in their list.

But the important thing is not so much whether Clarke performs but whether the likes of Shane Watson (fitness permitting) and Steve Smith can build on their efforts at the Oval last summer, when they scored 176 and 138 not out respectively to provide the sort of scores necessary to take the burden off captain Clarke.

Smith, 24, is one of those up-and-at-’em types who will relish taking on England in his own backyard – and his leg spin isn’t too bad either.

Moreover, Chris Rogers got an important monkey off his back with his maiden Test century in the match at Chester-le-Street, while the big-hitting David Warner could be more of a threat this time – and not just in the local nightspots.

England’s top-six looks superior, yes, but it is hardly infallible – as proved by events in England last summer.

The likes of Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott, for example, struggled by their standards and I am not entirely convinced that the challenge is going to get much easier.

I would expect Kevin Pietersen to have a better series and Joe Root to contribute runs wherever he bats, but England were overly-reliant on Ian Bell last time and he is unlikely to hit the same heights Down Under.

The Australian attack has a quality look.

Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle are high-class performers who will not give England a moment’s peace.

Nathan Lyon is a more-than-useful spinner – perhaps not a million miles behind our own Graeme Swann now given that Swann is in the twilight of a wonderful career. But Australia’s trump card could be Mitchell Johnson, who is supposedly back to something like his best.

If true – and he showed flashes of form in the recent one-day series against England – then that could give Australia an added weapon.

I would feel more optimistic for England if Tim Bresnan was fully-fit and/or Graham Onions on the tour. Onions might not be a horses-for-courses choice for Australian pitches but the Durham man was the best bowler in England last summer (73 first-class wickets at 18.93) and he consistently tests batsmen by making them play. Against an Australian top-order that is improving but which has still got work to do, I would rather have someone like Onions try to expose technique than a hit-the-deck bowler like Tremlett attempting to exploit bounce in the wickets. There is much to be said for nagging line-and-length.

Nor am I convinced about the Michael Carberry situation.

Carberry is a fine player, but how fickle can we be in terms of selection?

Last winter, Nick Compton was chosen to open the batting with Cook and, as some of us predicted, got runs against an underwhelming New Zealand team.

Likewise, as some of us predicted, he did not keep it going and promptly lost his place, forcing England to do what they should have done in the first instance and promote Joe Root.

Then Root had a couple of indifferent scores – incidentally, let’s not forget the good ones of 180 against Australia at Lord’s and 68 in the last Test at the Oval – and the order is seemingly about to change again. Carberry scored an unbeaten century against Australia A (how bad were they, by the way?) and now looks set to open the innings when the action starts for real in Brisbane.

England’s selectors have done much right of late, but I would query them on Carberry and Onions. In my view (admittedly probably not worth the paper it’s written on), a top-three of Cook, Carberry and Trott could be vulnerable against Harris, Siddle and a rejuvenated Johnson.

We shall see...

I also detect if not quite an over-confidence in the England camp, then certainly a trace of over-professionalism; did they really need an 82-page dossier for their catering requirements?

Of course, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating and England will hope to make a slice of history.

However, if you are going to put your foot down on a cranberry breakfast bar, it is as well to deliver the goods on the field to avoid ending up with egg on your face.