Expectation dimmed as Hodgson gets set to lead England into the unknown

IT is surely a sign of the times that the quarter-final place deemed not good enough for England in three consecutive tournaments under Sven Goran Eriksson seems to be the height of the nation’s ambition ahead of Euro 2012.

Certainly, there can scarcely have been a time when a Three Lions squad has gone into a major finals surrounded by less expectation than will be the case when Roy Hodgson and his 23-man squad fly out to Poland and Ukraine later this week.

A succession of injuries, the absence of Wayne Rooney for the first two group games due to suspension and a turbulent few months that has brought – after an unfeasibly long delay – not only the parachuting in of a new manager but also another captain have all conspired to turn this squad into the most unfancied to leave these shores in a long, long time.

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Even in 1990, arguably the last time England were as unfancied ahead of a big tournament, there was still sufficient hope that Gazza could emerge as a genuine talent on the international stage and provide the supply line for Gary Lineker up front to engender a belief that England could cause a surprise or two in the World Cup.

This time, however, there has not even been a classic football soundtrack courtesy of New Order and John Barnes to take the country’s mind off the woes that have afflicted England since a place at Euro 2012 was booked sealed last year.

As welcome as this sweeping away of the bloated arrogance and expectation that invariably accompanies the national team heading to a major finals has been, what has started to grate is the deliberate downplaying in some quarters of England’s prospects.

If some are to be believed, it is almost as if Hodgson is leading a bunch of no-hopers rated somewhere between Grenada and Thailand in the FIFA rankings rather than a squad unbeaten in competitive action for two years and rated, on results at least, the seventh best in the world.

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Sometimes, forced pessimism can be as boring as false bravado – particularly when the suspicion is that those dismissing England as little more than cannon fodder for the ‘might’ of Ukraine, France and Sweden in Group D secretly believe that downplaying the nation’s chances will somehow lead to Hodgson’s men emulating the Danes of 1992 by winning the tournament as rank outsiders.

That scenario is highly unlikely, not least because back then there was no team able to take the game to the heights Spain have managed over the past four years. Holland’s class of 2012 would also surely give their counterparts of 20 years ago more than a good game, as would Joachim Low’s Germany if time travel meant they could be pitted against the team that finished as runners-up in Sweden.

Hodgson, it must be pointed out, has been complicit in this lowering of expectation with his constant alluding to “Brazil 2014” and the need to build towards the next World Cup.

But, privately, surely he must, injuries permitting, believe England possess the quality to make it through to at least the last eight – something that, considering the disruption caused by Fabio Capello’s exit and the Football Association’s subsequent dithering over a replacement, would surely represent a perfectly respectable performance.

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If a place in the quarter-finals is to be claimed, Joe Hart remaining fit is vital. As is Rooney returning from suspension living up to his billing as one of England’s true world class talents.

The pivotal figure for England, however, in Euro 2012 is likely to be Scott Parker, when filling the role that Eric Cantona, when talking about Didier Deschamps in the Nineties, derided as being little more than “a water carrier”.

What the mercurial Frenchman did not appreciate when dismissing Deschamps was the direction football was heading at the very top level and the influence Deschamps – and, later, his successor in the French national side Claude Makelele – would soon have. In fact, Makelele’s success in the Premier League with Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea was such that the role was named after him.

In Parker, England finally have someone of that ilk – as was evident during Euro 2012 qualifying when his anchoring of midfield provided a reassuring defensive barrier in front of the back four.

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Not only that, but his tendency to rarely waste a pass afforded the Three Lions the ability to retain the ball, something that in an age when Spain have become the dominant force in international football is crucial.

Considering Euro 2012 as a whole, Spain, bidding to become the first team in history to win three consecutive tournaments, start as favourites.

However, a less than impressive run of results in friendlies, including last November’s 1-0 defeat at Wembley, together with Barcelona losing not only their Champions League and La Liga titles but also Pep Guardiola have led to suggestions that Spain’s reign at the top of world football could be about to end.

Any team who does stop the Spanish, though, will have to be exceptional with the winning mentality that has been cemented in lifting Euro 2008 and the World Cup two years ago likely to take Vincente del Bosque all the way to the final.

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Along the way, if results go to form and Spain finish on top of Group C, they are likely to have faced either England or Sweden in the quarters and, then, Germany in the last four.

Even allowing for the friendly defeats to England, Portugal (0-4) and Argentina (1-4), the Germans are unlikely to prevent Spain reaching their second Championships final in a row.

In what is effectively the other half of the draw, Holland are the standout side most likely to reach the knockout stage and it is unlikely any side from Group A or the winners of what looks like being France v Italy in the Kiev quarter-final will be able to prevent a repeat of the 2010 World Cup final.

If that does prove to be how the Championships play out, the hope has to be that the Dutch do not betray their glorious past and opt for the over-physical approach that brought nine yellow cards, John Heitinga’s dismissal and a deserved 1-0 defeat to Spain in South Africa.

Providing they do just that, Holland’s firepower may well then be crucial in clinching a second title.