Leeds United given '92 per cent' chance of promotion as Barnsley predicted for the drop

With all domestic football put on hold by the outbreak of coronavirus, data experts have crunched the numbers to determine how each Yorkshire club will finish the 2019-20 season.
Helder Costa and Patrick Bamford celebrate a Leeds United goal. PIC: George Wood/Getty Images.Helder Costa and Patrick Bamford celebrate a Leeds United goal. PIC: George Wood/Getty Images.
Helder Costa and Patrick Bamford celebrate a Leeds United goal. PIC: George Wood/Getty Images.

All EFL and Premier League games are scheduled to resume on April 30, although it is largely expected that date will be pushed back further with the nation currently on lockdown to help combat the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The FA, EFL and Premier League have committed to exploring ways of completing the current campaign, including extending it beyond the present limit, into the summer.

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UEFA have postponed the Euro 2020 Championships in order to help facilitate the completion of domestic league programmes and cup competitions.

With 75 per cent of the season completed, data experts at the Euro Club Index have provided the Yorkshire Post with a scientific predication of how the Championship season will finish.

The Euro Club Index takes into account each teams' relative strength and runs through 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the season to determine a final league placing and the percentage chances of a team winning the league, gaining promotion or suffering relegation.

It is predicted that Leeds will be a Premier League club again next campaign with their chances of automatic promotion rated at 92.95 per cent.

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West Brom - given a 92.06 per cent chance of going up - are expected to join the Whites in the top flight next season.

Barnsley players celebrate. PIC: Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images.Barnsley players celebrate. PIC: Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images.
Barnsley players celebrate. PIC: Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images.

The Whites are also expected to be promoted as champions, with their title chances standing at 49.99 per cent to West Brom's 47.41 per cent.

The data makes for less encouraging reading for Leeds' Championship neighbours, Barnsley, who are seven points adrift of safety and are given a 90 per cent likelihood of being relegated to League One.

The relegation equation makes better reading for fans of Hull City, Huddersfield Town and Middlesbrough with each club given much slimmer chances of going down.

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It is only 20 per cent likely that Hull will be relegated, despite being just two points above the bottom-three places, while Middlesbrough's, who are also on 41 points, relegation prospects standing at just 13 per cent.

The Terriers won two of their last three outings before the suspension of the campaign - losing the other 2-0 at Elland Road - and are only 13 per cent likely to go down.

Sheffield Wednesday, meanwhile, are given less than a one per cent chance of being relegated or finishing in the Championship play-offs.

In the Premier League, it is no surprise that Sheffield United's relegation prospects are rated at zero, as they sit in seventh spot with 43 points from 28 games.

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Chris Wilder's side have been among the standout performers in the top-flight and are only two points from a Champions League position, providing Manchester City's two-year ban from the competition is upheld.

But despite their form, the Blades are projected to finish in ninth place on 54 points and have been given less than a three per cent chance claiming of a Champions League spot.

In League One, Rotherham United are on course for an immediate return to the Championship but with just eight points between second and eighth place, the battle for the final automatic spots is wide open.

The Millers have been given just a 31 per cent chance of finishing second while ninth-placed Doncaster Rovers' prospects of finishing in the play-offs stand at just under 20 per cent.

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In League Two, Bradford City are four points adrift of the top seven but have been predicted to finish the season in ninth with less than a 15 per cent chance of reaching the play-offs.

The Euro Club Index provides a ranking of all European clubs based on competition results over a four year-period. It is a collaboration between Gracenote Sports and Hypercube Business Innovation.

The Euro Club Index ratings are used to calculate the potential results for all remaining matches in a competition and these are then run through 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the season to produce the most likely final standings and the percentage chance of finishing in different positions.

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