Betting: Why you should back Leeds to beat Forest

Billy Sharp. PIC: Varley Picture Agency
Billy Sharp. PIC: Varley Picture Agency
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HAVE a small wager on Leeds United to win at Nottingham Forest on Saturday, as the Whites might have a better chance than you first think.

Forest are odds on with every bookmaker and there’s plenty of reasons why the layers have them as short as 4-6, with 3-4 the best it gets with BetVictor and Ladbrokes.

Forest are ninth in the table and just five points off the play-offs compared to Leeds who are sixth-bottom and five points off the drop zone.

Forest also have home advantage and Leeds have been useless on their travels having picked up just one win and two draws from ten games.

That makes the Whites the worst away side in the Championship, even worse than Blackpool.

So why on Earth would you back them?

Well, for starters Forest might be ninth but carry on as they are and they will slip much lower.

After a fantastic start to the season, they have followed a 2-1 loss at Birmingham with draws against Charlton and Rotherham - the 1-1 Addicks draw coming on their own turf.

And while Leeds aren’t exactly great away, Forest are not exactly dynamite at home and they have picked up almost as many points on their travels away from home as at the City Ground.

Forest are only 15th in the Championship home table with 16 points from ten games whereas they are eighth in the away table with 14 points out of 11.

Brentford and Blackburn have both won at the City Ground this term and while both of those sides are in the promotion picture, Leeds should have won at Ewood Park themselves four outings ago when 1-0 up with 19 minutes to go.

We tipped Leeds at odds of around 4-1 again on that occasion and there’s a feeling of unfinished business for a value bet that will surely eventually be landed!

True, United didn’t look great when losing at home to Fulham last weekend but Neil Redfearn has promised a fresh approach and likely changes and it’s not like we are being asked to back Leeds at a short price.

So a small wager to land the bet we deserved to win at Blackburn is advised - as is an investment on both teams to score at a best-priced 17-20 with Ladbrokes.

Their club’s last five meetings have produced an average of almost five goals a game so it’s surprising those odds aren’t shorter.

Over 4.5 goals is 6-1 with BetVictor and that’s tempting with over 3.5 at 9-4 with various firms.

And if we’re looking for a first scorer wager - hopefully for Leeds - then with changes perhaps imminent, maybe Billy Sharp is a decent punt against his old club at 9s with SkyBet.

Forest’s Britt Assombalonga is naturally favourite to net first at 4-1 with Bet365 and he might warrant a saver but Sharp may get recalled to misfiring Leeds and will obviously have a point to prove against his former employers.

If he scores first and Leeds win 4-1 we’ll be laughing.