Richard Sutcliffe: Missing African sides leave Cup of Nations field wide open

FORGET the Championship and the well-worn cliche trotted out by countless manager of how “every team is capable of beating everyone else”, surely the most unpredictable football competition around has to be the qualifying stages of the Africa Cup of Nations.

Kicking off tomorrow, the 28th finals, this time being held in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, boast a truly bizarre line-up of teams that few on the continent could have predicted.

Heading the long list of notable absentees will be the current holders Egypt, who finished bottom of their qualifying pool after a truly wretched campaign.

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Also watching from afar will be Nigeria and Algeria, both semi-finalists when the tournament was last held two years ago, plus South Africa.

Cameroon, Africa’s most successful World Cup side with six appearances in the finals, will be another notable absentee after reaching the last eight in 2010, when they only bowed out after extra-time against eventual champions Egypt, who in defeating Ghana in the final made it three successes in a row at the Cup of Nations.

In the place of all these established powers in African football will be a host of relative unknowns, including debutants Botswana and Niger, whose population of around 15.5m is a tenth of neighbours Nigeria.

To put this most unlikely of line-ups into context, the Cup of Nations is the equivalent of Euro 2012 taking place without, among others, holders Spain, Germany and Italy. Unthinkable? Most would say so.

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What the absence of so many of Africa’s more traditional powerhouse nations should do, though, is guarantee a truly fascinating tournament.

Ivory Coast will start as favourites, as would be expected of a squad containing the likes of Didier Drogba, Yaya Touré, Gervinho, Salomon Kalou and Cheick Tioté.

The Elephants have not won the Cup of Nations since 1992 and it is difficult to see them not progressing from a group featuring Sudan, Burkina Faso and Angola.

Once through, however, the quality of opposition is likely to take a step-up with just one of the many sides standing in the Ivory Coast’s way being Ghana.

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Runners-up two years ago, Ghana boast a host of players that will be familiar with football fans in this country. Sulley Muntari and Asamoah Gyan showed plenty of Premier League class during their time in England and if both can hit top form then Ghana have a good chance of going the distance, especially as a group containing Mali, Botswana and Guinea is unlikely to prove too troubling.

Queens Park Rangers’ Adel Taarabt will be hoping to rediscover the form that made him nigh on unplayable in last season’s Championship to help Morocco prosper in Group C, perhaps the hardest of the four to get out of due to the presence of Gabon (comfortably the better of the two hosts), Tunisia and Niger.

Of the rest, a young Mali side could be a threat but if there is one side that stands out as having a great chance of pipping both the Ivory Coast and Ghana to the title then it is Senegal.

Demba Ba is in the form of his life right now at Newcastle United and considered African football’s newest success story. But it is not only the new darling of the Toon Army who provides Senegal’s goal threat with Papiss Cisse, Ba’s new club-mate at St James’ Park following a £9m switch from Freiburg in Germany earlier this month, also having been in the goals along with Lille’s Moussa Sow, top scorer in France last term, then it is clear that Senegal’s forward line is going to take some stopping.

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