Northampton Saints V Leeds Carnegie: Leeds get ready to produce greatest escape in history

Leeds did not win a league game this season until January 1 and even two months ago, they still trailed the Falcons by 11 points.

The deficit is now only one point, with Leeds having actually overtaken Newcastle by a point courtesy of their nerve-jangling win at Kingston Park four weeks ago.

The job was not done then, however, and two losing bonus points later, the Falcons have reclaimed the high ground.

For the Yorkshire club to clamber above Newcastle one last time, they must gain at least a draw at Franklin’s Gardens today and hope Bath defeat Alan Tait’s Falcons without giving up a point.

It is a tall order for Leeds, made even steeper a climb by the fact that Northampton are Heineken Cup finalists and need at least a point to secure their place in the Premiership semi-finals and a win to avoid a trip to favourites Leicester.

“If you think back to where we were, 11 points adrift, to be within a point going into the last game, if we were to survive it would be the biggest comeback ever in Premiership history,” said head coach Back.

“To come out of the Championship and survive in the Premiership with the squad we had was a great achievement last season, because we were spending half what other squads were spending.

“This year we reduced the squad by six, spent the same amount of money and are still in it.

“The thing is, though, we’re playing a quality team on their own patch, and they are a hungry side.

“They are European finalists, that’s not by chance it’s through hard work, commitment and the quality of their squad.

“They’ll be fully focussed on getting what they need. We absolutely have to play at our best to have any chance.

“It’s a tough job, with the season they’ve had, but funny things happen in sport. Wolves beat Manchester United – it can happen.”

Should the task prove too much for Leeds today, they may still be reprieved in their survival bid by Cornish Pirates, who will render promotion and relegation redundant if they defeat Premiership-ready Worcester over two legs on May 11 and 18.

Cornish do not meet Premier Rugby criteria to gain entry into the top flight, but Back believes Bedford’s failure to hang onto a lead against Worcester in the semi-final means the best chance of that scenario playing out has gone. Not that he thinks his Headingley men should have to rely on that.

“I was oblivious to the play-off semi-final because it didn’t affect what we were working hard on here,” he said. “That scare Worcester have had will probably ground them fully. I don’t expect them to come unstuck against Cornish Pirates. Even with the strong showing Cornish have shown this season.”

The folly of a Championship play-off structure that means three of the four semi-finalists are either ineligible or not interested in reaching the Premiership has reinvigorated the debate about ring-fencing the Premiership.

Leeds chief executive Gary Hetherington told the Yorkshire Post this week that the 14-team, three-year franchise system rugby league uses is the blueprint to follow, a sentiment echoed by Leeds’s England flanker Hendre Fourie, who, as well as vowing he would not follow Steve Thompson out the exit door unless his hand was forced, spoke intelligently of the opportunity to blood young home-grown players such a system would promote.

Premier Rugby has a contract with the Rugby Football Union to maintain promotion and relegation until 2016, and although that can be renegotiated, Back said: “The Premiership would be strengthened if you have however many clubs knowing they were competing in the Premiership every year.

“At the bottom, it’s difficult attracting the best players and sponsors are less willing to get involved.”

So to today’s game and nullifying the threat of the Saints, who boast one of the most forceful back lines in the business in Chris Ashton, Ben Foden and Bruce Reihana to name but a few.

Back said: “They have a simple game plan, but they execute it well. They’ve got strike runners with pace and a bit of the X-Factor – you’ve got to limit the chances you give them. Ineveitably, there are areas we feel we can exploit, it’s our task to identify and execute. They are not unbeatable, we have to play smart and give absolutely everything we can.”

Though Back insists whichever side he puts out this week will be his best, the team sheet says otherwise. Captain Marco Wentzel misses out due to a calf strain and Luther Burrell is also injured ahead of his summer move to Sale.

Thompson plays at hooker while Alfie To’oala bolsters the forwards at No 8. There is also a first place on the bench for England Sevens player Uche Oduoza, highlighting the lack of squad depth at Back’s disposal.

Biggest comeback indeed.

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