Statistics show how battle for survival is being won

Marco Wentzel’s forward unit is the meanest lineout division in English rugby’s top tier, having lost only eight in 21 games, according to the Premiership’s Opta stats. They have also won 118 of the pivotal set-piece.

It is a crumb of comfort for a club with one last chance to avoid relegation on Saturday at Northampton – unless Cornish Pirates complete the job threatened by Bedford yesterday and oust Worcester from the Championship play-offs. The Warriors are the only side who meet Rugby Football Union criteria to earn promotion to the Premiership.

But if the adage stands that statistics do not lie, there is no hiding from the fact that they can also occasionally mask the truth.

The importance of statistics polarises opinion. In the United States, players, fans and media live and die by them in determining everything from the most successul red-zone offence to who is the best player in the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, the National Hockey League or Major League Baseball.

On this side of the pond, stats do not hold as much relevance. They are of a passing interest, something to be mulled over and a source of knowledge for the anoraks amongst us. Coaches rely on statistics to tell them where their team is going right or wrong and where opponents’ strengths and weaknesses lie.

Leeds head coach Neil Back is a connoisseur of the statistic, arming his players with information that will help them better their game and give them an improved chance of achieving their objective. It will not be lost on the England World Cup winner, or for that matter anyone, though, that the most telling statistic is the only one that really counts. Leeds are bottom of the table after 21 games.

One of the reasons for this is that although their lineout may be strong, when they win possession, they rarely turn it into points.

Statistically, Leeds’s offence is the second-worst in the division, better only than one team, Newcastle’s, whom they are vying with for Premiership survival.

It is no coincidence that both sides are where they are.

Back’s men have made the second-fewest clean breaks and the second fewest metres gained.

Their back division is also, statistically, the third-worst at beating defenders.

In each of those three instances, Newcastle has the worst department.

The Falcons might have scored 68 more points than Leeds but they have scored one less try.

Indeed, it could be argued that Newcastle are only still in the survival race thanks to one man – Jimmy Gopperth.

In his second season with the club, the New Zealander has kicked 80 goals, accounting for 236 points, the highest tally in the Premiership.

It is also more than two-thirds of the entire team’s points tally this term and underlines the importance of a goal-kicker in a side.

Mid-season signing Adrian Jarvis, Cornish Pirates-bound Ceiron Thomas, stand-in full-back Leigh Hinton and dual-registered Christian Lewis-Pratt have shared kicking duties for the blue shirts of Carnegie this season and have amassed only a fraction of Gopperth’s worth. Leeds have scored only 156 points with the boot, and six of those were courtesy of the Jarvis drop goals at Newcastle three weeks ago that has kept them in the hunt to avoid demotion to the Championship.

Newcastle’s scrum is not bad either, in fact, it is the best in the league.

Despite being 11th and still threaetened with relegation, a pack bolstered mid-season by Euan Murray, has won the most and lost the fewest scrums. Leeds has one of the worst and are patently not getting enough clean ball to the likes of scrum-half Scott Mathie to feed the backs. Their pack has won the second fewest scrums – 77 – and has lost 19 against the head, the third-highest total in the league.

Leeds have also committed the fourth-highest amount of errors, with 114, though the team topping that chart is Leicester Tigers, who are in the hunt for yet another Premiership title. Is that because they take more chances? And if so, should Leeds be commended for at least trying to make things happen?

The majority of statistics, however, point to Leeds being not as bad as the table suggests.

They are middle of the road in rucks, carries and turnovers.

Yet it all returns to the one statistic that counts – Leeds are bottom of the table and staring relegation in the face.

Read into that what you will.