Tories to be left with same seats in Yorkshire as in 1997, analysis suggests

The seats, with a majority in North and East Yorkshire are almost identical to the ones it was left with in 1997 following Tony Blair’s landslide victory.

Analysis by The Yorkshire Post found that the party faces losing almost all of its seats in South and West Yorkshire under the most recent MRP polling by YouGov.

Despite the boundary review increasing several Conservative majorities in the region, and even winning them three seats from Labour, the party is set to lose all of the seats it gained under Boris Johnson in 2019.

Seats around Richmond, Google, Skipton, Bridlington and Thirsk have long-been Conservative strongholds but could be under threat if constituents vote tactically at the next election in order to return a Labour MP.

A comparison of the effects of the new constituency boundaries and the most recent seat predictions suggests that Labour are set up to pick up 18 seats in Yorkshire, while the Liberal Democrats have a significant chance of winning Harrogate and Knaresborough.

In its eight remaining seats, modelling suggest that there are enough Liberal Democrat, Green and Reform voters to worry incumbent Tory MPs if they were to vote tactically.

It comes as Reform hits 12 per cent in the polls, its highest level of support, while the Conservatives dropped to 20 per cent, its lowest level since Liz Truss’ final days in office.

One-in-four (25 per cent) of Tory 2019 voters told YouGov that they now plan to vote for Reform in the next general election.

This is set to severely damage Tory votes in the nine seats it won from Labour in 2019, as well as seats where Conservative majorities have been falling in recent years.

Conservatives attempt to push through its immigration legislation in order to fulfil Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “Stop the Boats” this week passed a major hurdle in the House of Commons, with the Prime Minister warning Peers in the House of Lords not to block it.

He told reporters on Thursday that the country would be “back to square one” under a Labour government, pushing the message that his party was “united” despite key Tory figures resigning because they felt his policy to cut migrant crossings did not go far enough.

Meanwhile, Labour MPs have been given a “campaigning bible” aimed to assist its election candidates to “gear them for the next phase” of preparations.

The 24-page document insists that “front and centre of everything we do will be economic stability” and that “every one of our commitments are fully costed and fully funded”, but does not mention the party’s pledge to invest £28bn-a-year in green projects.

Next month will see the Conservatives face another two by-elections to replace Peter Bone and Chris Skidmore, in what will be yet another electoral test ahead of May’s local elections and the general election expected in the second half of the year.