Business Review: Summer sees first signs that inflation is beginning to ease

As Parliament prepared for the summer recess, there were very early signs that inflation was beginning to ease.In July, Sainsbury’s reported that food inflation was “starting to fall” as the supermarket group saw sales boosted by bank holidays and warmer weather.

The UK’s second largest supermarket said it expected pre-tax profits of between £640m and £700m for 2023 as grocery sales grew by 11 per cent due to lower prices.

However, official figures showed the rate of food inflation remained at a stubbornly high 18.3 per cent. Overall shop prices rose 8.4 per cent over the year to June, a slowdown from the nine per cent recorded in the year up to May, research from the British Retail Consortium and retail analysts NielsenIQ showed.

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Meanwhile, the UK’s manufacturing sector contracted to a six-month low as producers continue to battle lacklustre demand at home and overseas. Manufacturers’ input costs fell at the sharpest rate since 2016, which was a “symptom” of weak demand, according to the closely watched S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI survey.

Robots in engineering. Picture: Adobe StockRobots in engineering. Picture: Adobe Stock
Robots in engineering. Picture: Adobe Stock

Figures from EY-Parthenon also showed that profit warnings issued by listed companies in Yorkshire increased year-on-year in the second quarter of the year to nine, as a slowdown in the housing market hit demand in the construction sector.

The number of companies filing for administration across Yorkshire and the North East jumped by 12 per cent year-on-year to 37 in the second quarter, as cost inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish growth continue to bite hard on British businesses, according to Interpath Advisory.

There were also changes at the top of some of Yorkshire’s best known businesses in July.

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Philip Meeson, the businessman who transformed Jet2 from a small cargo airline into one of the UK's biggest leisure travel businesses, revealed he was stepping down from the Leeds-based company’s board.

Yorkshire Building Society announced that, after nine years at the mutual, its chairman John Heaps would be succeeded by Annemarie Durbin.

August began with the Bank of England raising interest rates for the 14th consecutive time to a 15-year high of 5.25 per cent with the warning that the cost of borrowing would remain high for at least the next two years.

Meanwhile, Yorkshire-based building products supplier Marshalls announced it was axing around 250 jobs and closing a factory in Scotland after sales dived due to the housing market slowdown.

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There was further disappointing news for York-based housebuilder Persimmon which reported a nearly 30 per cent fall in revenue to £1.2bn as it sold considerably fewer houses during the first six months of the year. Bellway also revealed that economic uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures affected consumer demand over its last financial year.

High street chain Wilko appointed administrators after failing to secure a rescue deal, putting about 12,000 jobs at risk. The GMB union announced that all of Wilko’s 400 stores would close by early October.

Clothing and food retailers, however, appeared to shrug off cost-of-living concerns.

Next revealed it was buoyed by improved full-price trading and a strong end-of-season sale in the latest quarter and Marks & Spencer told investors it would deliver higher profits for the year ahead after increading market share in both its clothing and home, and food businesses over the past 19 weeks.

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Supermarket giant Asda said it had received a boost from strong

sales of its own-brand goods as customers tried to find cheaper alternatives during the cost-of-living crisis.

However, trust in the grocery sector plummeted to its lowest point in

more than a decade as the majority of households faced rising supermarket prices, a survey by Which? suggested.

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Expansion was on the horizon for Scottish venture capital firm Par Equity, which announced its move into Yorkshire with new offices in Leeds and Sheffield.

The UK’s private sector suffered a shock downturn in August on the

back of lower new orders and higher borrowing costs, increasing concerns the economy could enter a recession towards the end of the year. It represented the first monthly decline since January as firms were struck hard by recent hikes to interest rates. The S&P Global/CIPS flash UK PMI fell to 47.9 in August, down from 50.8 in July.

In early September, global recruitment firm Charlton Morris, which employed about 124 people at its Leeds headquarters, went into liquidation.

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Retailer Card Factory warned investors it faced a tough run-up to Christmas with the economy facing a potential downturn, but said it was well placed to weather these pressures. “While we remain mindful of the challenging economic back drop and the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on discretionary spend, we continue to be encouraged by the resilience of the celebration occasions market and the growth opportunity it presents,” it said.