Hint of Christmas relief for consumers as grocery inflation dips for first time in 21 months

However, analysts from Kantar warned that inflation still remains near record highs.

Grocery price inflation in November fell by 0.1 percentage points to 14.6 per cent, marking the first decline in 21 months. Take-home grocery sales have increased by 5.9 per cent year on year in the 12 weeks to November 27 2022, the fastest level of growth since March 2021.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, commented: “As we move into the busiest time of the year for supermarkets, there are signs that the pace of grocery price inflation is easing off slightly as we saw a small dip of 0.1 percentage points this month.

"Grocery inflation still has a long way to come down though and based on the current rate, shoppers will have to spend an extra £60 in December to buy the same items as last year. The cost of a traditional Christmas dinner for four has hit £31 in 2022, an example of just how much rising prices are impacting people at the tills and in their daily lives.”

“December looks set to be a record-breaking month with sales going above the £12bn mark for the first time. We’re expecting Friday 23 December to be the busiest day for pre-Christmas shopping.”

Consumers appear to be leaving their seasonal purchases later this year as they try to manage budgets in the run up to Christmas Day.

Mr McKevitt said: “Sales of mince pies, Christmas puddings and Christmas confectionery are worth 2 per cent more than last year, but this rise can largely be put down to higher prices. If we look at the amount of people buying these items and the overall number of purchases made, then sales are actually down on 2021.

“We’re seeing yet more evidence of the coping strategies shoppers are adopting to mitigate rising costs, and in particular own label sales are growing at pace, now up 11.7 per cent year on year.

"The cheapest value own label lines have soared by 46.3 per cent, but people still want to find room for treats at this time of year and this is driving growth at the other end of the spectrum too. Premium own label sales are up by 6.1 per cent to £461m in November.”

The number of times people visited the supermarkets hit a new high this period, according to Kantar.

Mr McKevitt added: “Households went grocery shopping more than 48 times in the 12 weeks to 27 November, that’s the highest frequency we’ve recorded since April 2020. This is largely about the gradual return to pre-COVID behaviours, something we’ve been following for many months.”

The strong growth of the discounters continued over the latest 12 weeks with both Aldi and Lidl opening new stores across Britain. Lidl’s year-on-year sales increased by 22.0 per cent, pushing its market share to a record 7.4 per cent. An additional 1.5m households shopped with Aldi compared with 2021 as it grew sales by 24.4 per cent to claim 9.3 per cent of the market.Asda’s sales grew ahead of the sector, up by 6.1 per cent, keeping its share steady at 14.0 per cent. Tesco’s market share is at 27.2 per cent as its sales rose by 3.9 per cent. The second largest retailer, Sainsbury’s, pushed up sales by 4.3 per cent this period.

Convenience retailer Co-op increased sales by 3.5 per cent and achieved 6.0 per cent market share. Waitrose’s market share is 4.5 per cent while Iceland’s sales grew by 6.1 per cent, as its share remained at 2.3 per cent.