YP75: Confidence plunges after Bank of England committee report

While the US economy continued to show improvement in the final quarter of 2010, the UK lagged behind with a surprising 0.5 per cent fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) announced last week.

Meanwhile, the confidence of the UK consumer in both the economy and their personal finances fell by a remarkable 8 points, the biggest monthly drop since the 1992 recession.

All of this followed the release of the minutes from the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting which showed a further committee member voted for a quarter-point rise in the Bank of England's base rate, a move designed to help curb inflation.

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While the move was not enough to see the main interest raised, it was a sign that the committee are finely balanced in terms of the next move in interest rates.

Much like the January transfer window, there was dramatic last-minute action for Leeds-based Northern Foods last week. The board turned around in stark fashion, ditching the proposed merger with Greencore Group in favour of a 73p per share cash offer from Indian firm Boparan Holdings. The deal was made all the more remarkable given that the Takeover Panel allowed Boparan an extra two hours following its original deadline in order to agree a deal with Northern Foods board and pension trustees.

Greencore later issued a statement reiterating their interest in Northern Foods, opening up the possibility for an improved offer, possibly with a cash incentive for shareholders.

Severfield Rowen warned that the second half of 2011 is likely to be very challenging as it lowered its forecasts for the coming financial year.

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The company cited a number of project deferrals in both the London office market and the energy sector as well as planned public sector spending cuts which is forecast to reduce industry demand significantly later in the year.

Severfield, a structural steel maker, believes there is the possibility for some improvement in 2012.

Meanwhile, the company's relatively new joint venture in India, named JSW Severfield Structures Ltd, continued to grow its order book.

Hazardous-waste business Augean announced that it expects profit before tax to exceed expectations when full-year results are released in March.

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Despite the challenging weather conditions experienced in December 2010, the board is cautiously optimistic about the company's outlook, particularly in the landfill division which has shown signs of recovery. Whilst prices and margins remain under competitive pressure in this division, volumes have risen to 303,000 tonnes, an 18 per cent year-on-year rise.

Augean has also completed the upgrade to its Indirect Thermal Desorption plant at Port Clarence, increasing annual capacity by 28,000 tonnes.

David Cadwallader Investment Manager Brewin Dolphin

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