Deaths among elderly ‘to soar as climate change brings heatwaves’

A five-fold increase is predicted in Yorkshire with temperatures nationally predicted to rise by three to four degrees by the 2080s.

While deaths due to the cold will remain a bigger problem, there will be less of them, because of the milder winters, researchers predict.

The study, by Public Health England and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, examined fluctuations in weather patterns and death rates between 1993 and 2006 to establish the link between temperature and mortality.

They then looked at projected population and climate increases so that they could estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK in coming decades.

Researchers noted a 2.1 per cent increase in the number of deaths for every 1C rise in the temperature and a two per cent increase in mortality for every 1C drop.

The number of hot weather days is projected to rise steeply, tripling by 2080, while the number of cold days is expected to fall, though at a less dramatic pace.

At present there are around 41,000 winter-related deaths and 2,000 excess summer deaths.

The authors predict that without preventative measures, the number of heat-related deaths will increase by 66 per cent in the 2020s, 257 per cent by the 2050s and 535 per cent by the 2080s. Cold weather-related deaths will increase by three per cent in the 2020s, then decrease by two per cent in the 2050s and by 12 per cent in the 2080s, they added.

By 2080 there will be around 12,500 heat-related deaths and 36,500 cold-related deaths.

Co-author Sotiris Vardoulakis, head of Public Health England’s air pollution and climate change group, said: “Yorkshire is not one of the most heavily affected regions, according to the estimates, but there will be a five-fold increase, up from 1.4 deaths per 100,000 people in the early century up to 7.6 in the 2080s. They are lower than in London or the South East where the baseline is already higher.”

He said people would have to be more aware of the risks associated with heat, wear lighter clothing and stay in the shade, and in the long term take measures like planting more trees in cities and using different building materials.

He said while some summers would not be all that hot, the risk of heatwaves would increase. Those at highest risk are the over 75s, with pre-existing illnesses, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, as well as those with reduced mobility.