Why Leeds student Peng Wu is charting the spread of coronavirus in the UK

Back on March 5 as life was continuing relatively as normal in the UK despite rising concern about the spread of coronavirus, Leeds University masters student Peng Wu decided to start charting the growth in cases in this country to help people better understand what was happening with the epidemic.

The 26-year-old has lived in Leeds since last April where he has been studying international corporate law but is originally from Chengdu in China and had been taking a close interest in the spread of coronavirus across the world since the lockdown of Wuhan - the city where the virus originated - on January 23.

By March 5, the Department of Health and Social Care confirmed on Twitter that 115 cases had been recorded in the UK, up from 85 the previous day.

Peng says: “At that time, the total was 115 cases and I knew that because at that time the Government wasn’t taking much action it definitely meant the real number would be higher.”

He posted what would be his first daily chart on Twitter that day in response to the DHSC message, setting out the number of confirmed cases against an exponential growth curve prediction. At the time, when asked what his prediction for the coming days was, he warned with what has proved to be some accuracy: “Every three days or so, the number doubles until something effective is done.”

Peng’s intention was simple. “What I do every day is to draw a chart based on publicly available government data in a timely manner so that everyone can understand the growth trend more clearly,” he explains. “Insisting on doing this every day actually encourages everyone to continue to pay attention to the epidemic.”

He set up a notification system to be alerted to the public release of the day’s figures and was soon publishing his updated daily graph within moments of the Government’s figures becoming available, winning him ever-increasing plaudits from health professionals and ordinary social media users alike as the crisis has worsened.

On March 9, Peng tweeted: “Please enact some mandatory measures by way of legislation, there is no doubt that isolation is the most effective method.”

From last week, a new line was added to his chart covering the number of fatalities that were now occurring as a result of the virus. He has also started a parallel chart recording how many tests are being carried out each day and the percentage coming back positive.

Speaking before Boris Johnson’s announcement of an effective lockdown of Britain, Peng says he has some sympathy with the UK approach so far - where concerns have been raised both about a lack of widespread testing and delays in taking the type of stringent measures seen in China.

“In China not everybody infected got the test at the early stage. If they had symptoms like the fever or a cough, most people were only sitting at home. If people supported at home went to hospital, many people only got one or two tests and in some cases it would take until the fifth or sixth test to show a positive.

“We know in the UK the resources for tests are limited.

“Different countries and especially China have a different economic and social background so it is very hard for the UK to take action like China did. The Prime Minister said he wished people would follow social distancing but at the weekend you saw many people out chatting with each other and many people went to the park near where I live in Leeds.

“If you don’t keep at a safe distance from someone who is infected, it is quite dangerous.”

Peng says did not expect the response he has online to the graphs.

“I’m surprised about that. It is a very simple job, a very easy job. Maybe it is because I do it every day. I just input the data into an analytics graph.

“I think we should follow the guidance by the Government because the Chief Medical Officer has said the actions are based on scientific evidence.

“Definitely the best way to protect yourself is to wash your hands but you also need to stay the social distance. If you are face-to-face with someone, the virus can even infect you through your eyes.

“If I have been going to town or some crowded place, I will wear a mask. But if I’m just going shopping on my street or going to the park to get some fresh air, I don’t.”

So where is this all headed?

“I can’t make any prediction. I only know that in China they had eight weeks of very strict action and the Prime Minister has said here we will maybe be 12 weeks in this situation.

“I will continue to do the updates every day until the tide turns.”