Another good year for the Yorkshire residential property market is predicted with steady not soaraway price increases. Here’s what the experts have to say:
Simon Blyth, Simon Blyth estate agency
In December, when there is usually a lull in the property market, we were very busy but I think January and February this year will be a little quieter and people will come back to the market in February/March.I can’t see any issues ahead as interest rates are low, despite a small rise. I also think property still offers good value for money, even with the recent increases.
House prices have been playing catch-up after being held back by four years of uncertainty caused by the Brexit period.
When Brexit was resolved the market was about to lift off then Covid hit, so the boom we have seen is not just pandemic related.
In the areas we operate in, in south and west yorkshire, there is a good mix of businesses and industries doing really well and that gives people confidence to buy and sell homes.
Preconceived ideas about some of south Yorkshire’s former mining villages are also changing and buyers are realising just how lovely, rural and commutable they are. So, all the ingredients are there for another very good year for the property market but with values rising at a normal, steady rate.
Edward Hartshorne, managing director Blenkin and Co. estate agency
We are at the mercy of “Events, my dear boy, events”, but evidence suggests that period houses renovated to an eye-wateringly high standard will continue to carry a price premium and secure a rapid sale.
The formation of a two tier market, in part caused by the rising cost and supply difficulties within the building trade felt most keenly by small contractors, is sharpening the distinctions between those properties that can be described as luxurious and those in need of an update.
Country houses in Yorkshire certainly have an enduring appeal but a significant proportion of buyers cannot meet the cost of renovation to the elevated standard of living they have come to expect.
High income families with school age children are moving up from London and the home counties looking around the £1 million mark; they are well placed to get a mortgage but often don’t have the deep pockets of cash needed for top-to-bottom renovation.
A growth in sophisticated conversions by seasoned developers who have their own bank of resources is here to stay. The bar has been set.
With the economy and property market assaulted from all sides, it is reassuring to see a tangible resilience in the Yorkshire market that is likely to persist through this year, stoked by unsatisfied buyer demand.
London and international buyers view York and Yorkshire as a viable and financially secure region in which to base their principal residence, not just their second home. The early months of 2022 may well bring a new raft of enquiries for top of the range family properties as well as compact housing ergonomically designed and able to meet the needs of active and thoroughly independent downsizers.
Looking more closely at our industry, we are likely to see a changing landscape of agents as the economic screws tighten. Those agents with an effective team able to offer a bespoke and dexterous service for which they charge proper fees are prospering whilst those charging “race to the bottom” fees and trying to compete with online agencies are falling to the wayside. The days of sub 1.5% fees are coming to an end.
Patrick McCutcheon, head of residential at Dacre, Son & Hartley
With stock levels of Yorkshire housing for sale down across the board by around 35%, which isn’t as dramatic as some parts of England, it is hardly surprising that we have seen double digit price growth within the Dacres operational area over the last twelve months.
More rural and village properties, particularly those with land or “spare space” for hobbies, work rooms or garden offices have especially benefited from high levels of demand.
So where for next year? Despite the emergence of the current Covid variant, the property market has remained robust. A desire to move on, change lifestyles and continuing levels of very competitive interest rates have supported trading this year and I see no reason why those traits will not continue over the coming 12 months, although there may be some tail off towards the end of 2022 if demand becomes more satisfied.
Yes, there is inflationary pressure, which is likely to lead to an increase in base rates, but any increase on those is starting from an incredibly low level. 2022 does not have the advantage of the stamp duty concessions enjoyed in 2021 but nevertheless given buyer demand and generally readily available and sensibly priced finance, I comfortably expect price growth of around 5 - 7%, assuming there are no nasty surprises over the horizon.
Tim Gower, Director and Head of Residential at Robin Jessop
I believe that prices will remain firm for the foreseeable future unless there is a sudden increase in supply of available properties.
Demand in the Yorkshire Dales remains strong and it is the ongoing supply-demand imbalance which continues to drive the property market in rural areas.
This is being driven by the continued desire of buyers to move out of the city to a more spacious environment. With many having the option to work from home on a flexible basis, with 100mb wireless broadband options now available in many Wensleydale villages, the Yorkshire Dales has become a key destination.
That is not to say that we have not seen a change in the market since the Stamp Duty holiday ended. The urgency of transactions has been removed and the once frenzied activity has finally calmed down to pre-pandemic levels.
This has been welcomed by all stakeholders, although buyers still have to act swiftly if they wish to successfully secure a property.
Consequently, most properties continue to sell for well in excess of the guide price, which is likely to be sustained throughout 2022.
Sales of properties in quieter villages and those off the beaten track have been performing exceptionally well, although character properties in prime villages and thriving market towns such as Leyburn and Middleham, also continue to sell well. Market towns act as a magnet for interest regionally, perhaps due to their strategic positioning whilst also offering a wide range of local facilities and amenities, making them attractive for a variety of buyers.
As interest rates begin to creep upwards, the question is whether demand will ease during 2022. I am of the opinion that this is unlikely due to the key driving forces for moving into the Yorkshire Dales, a picturesque and accessible location, which has been highlighted by recent TV series
Andrew Beadnall, Beadnall Copley estate agents
Trying to predict the housing market can often prove futile, however one thing that I can be confident on is that the market in 2022 will continue to be buoyant.
The demand that has built up over the last 18 months looks set to remain especially as buyers will be keen to take advantage of available mortgage products before interest rate rises.
With available properties being scarce we have seen a huge increase in interest levels for new-build developments with smaller bespoke sites in Bedale and Boston Spa in particular proving popular with all units going under offer well before completion of the build and in some cases before a brick was even laid.
As for larger housing developments, such as Regency Place in Tockwith, currently being built by Evans Property Group, we already had a vast list of ready buyers ahead of its official January release date.
With valuation numbers increasing in recent weeks, a rise in the supply of properties coming onto the market should follow which could potentially slow the jump in price levels.
However, Yorkshire in general and its Golden Triangle in particular, continue to be among the most sought after locations in the country with Rightmove listing the region as one of four most likely to experience the biggest price growth with Yorkshire and Humberside expected to see a potential price rise of approximately 7% in 2022.
As for the rental market, it is very much a similar state of affairs, whereby a shortage of stock and a strong demand has led to the vast majority of properties receiving offers within days and in some cases with rents being agreed well in excess of their asking price, something previously never experienced in lettings.
Ed Stoyle, head of residential sales at Savills in Yorkshire
2021 was another extraordinary year, which yet again saw the housing market in Yorkshire, and the UK as a whole, completely defy the odds.
We get asked on a daily basis if prices have peaked, and whether the lockdown-driven demand for property is tailing off.
For anyone who is considering selling their home, the good news is that, far from missing the market, now is still a very good time to make the move.
The reality is that, while the stamp duty holiday created a sense of urgency earlier this year, the strong market conditions are derived from a fundamental shift in consumer priorities, prompted by the lockdown experience, in which people started prioritising quality of life above all else.
This high demand has been coupled with a significant undersupply of homes for sale. Between January and November 2021 available property at our Yorkshire branch was 20 per cent down on the same period in 2019. Despite this, our team recorded a 150 per cent increase in new buyer registrations and 50 per cent of agreed sales attracted multiple offers.
It is these factors which resulted in the property market moving in a completely different direction to the economy for the first time in history.
The market is far from slowing down. Based on the back up of motivated buyers and the low volume of new instructions, many high calibre houses are selling before they reach the open market and for premium prices and we don’t see that trend changing in the first quarter of 2022.
According to Savills research, house prices in Yorkshire are predicted to grow by 18.8 per cent over the next five years: the highest expected increase in the UK alongside the North West. This includes a 4.5 per cent increase in 2022 and so we expect the market to stay strong as we head into 2022.
However, the market remains price-sensitive, especially in light of the recent rate rise and therefore setting a realistic guide price from the start will be key to maintaining momentum in this new year.
Tony Wright, head of residential at Carter Jonas
The residential sales market in the Harrogate, Leeds and York areas has been extremely strong with all of our offices reporting record levels of activity.
A particular feature of the current market place is the noticeable shortage of new stock coming to the market resulting in pent up demand, with motivated buyers waiting to pounce on the right opportunity. Demand for city/town living is particularly evident but in the last year we have seen a noticeable increase in demand for village/country properties, driven very much by the pandemic.
In terms of the outlook for 2022, we are not seeing any signs that demand will slow. The recent interest rate rise is unlikely to have any detrimental effect as rates remain low and a small increase is unlikely to curb buyer demand.
There is an underlying confidence in the market driven by the significant number of buyers who are ready, willing and able to proceed, coupled with a lack of supply.
The imbalance between supply and demand will place further upward pressure on
transaction levels and prices and as a result we are anticipate a strong level of transactions across all price sectors and further house price growth in 2022.
Tim Waring, head of residential at Lister Haigh
I expect the housing market in Yorkshire will remain robust certainly until Easter, allowing those thinking of selling to take advantage of the strong market conditions that are currently being driven by limited supply.
It is too early to tell how the recent increase in base rates will impact. Personally. I think it will be modest, particularly when there is so much latent intent from those wishing to move.
Witness to this is my own agency booking over 50 viewings on the single property that was launched three weeks before Christmas with many interested parties already in rented accommodation or having nothing to sell to buy.
This time last year we were looking at an uncertain market, and look what happened. I think 2022 could prove to be another unusual year.
Mark Woolley, joint-managing director, Woolley & Parks estate agents
The East Yorkshire property market outperformed many areas of the UK in 2021 and will do so again in 2022 as demand continues to outstrip supply especially in and around the market towns of Beverley and Driffield and along the West Hull corridor. However, prices are expected to rise at a more modest pace of around 7% this year, although still above the nationally predicted 5% rise.
Buyer demand, especially for new homes, remains strong, particularly in sought after village locations such as Kilham and Leven where few new homes have been built in recent years.
Coastal towns and villages such as Hornsea, Flamborough and Hunmanby saw strong demand in 2021 and will continue this year as buyers seek the benefits of living on or near the East coast.
Nicola Spencer, Spencers estate agents, Sheffield
The stamp duty changes of 2021 did create a spike in the numbers of properties coming on to the market and agents across the board had increased stock, all which was selling for the asking price or over, in some cases up to 20% over the list prices. As we head into a new year, the message nationwide seems similar, that increased demand has vastly reduced supply and that every time a property goes live there is a mad rush.
One property sold in Sheffield in November 2021 had 67 viewings within the first week of going live and 46 offers at final offer stage, meaning that the administration for estate agencies has monumentally increased, all for one fee, and with up to 45 people needing a call to say that they haven’t been successful.
There have been lots of tears and people must expect to offer on dozens of properties before they are successful.
Mark Manning, managing director, Manning Stainton estate agents
According to the Land Registry, house prices in Yorkshire and the Humber have grown at over 11% adding almost £30,000 to the price of the average home being sold today.
Our own House Price Index at Manning Stainton and Fine & Country suggests that the average price across the area we cover has grown by almost 15%.
Whichever number you take, it is that we are in the midst of a sunny patch in the fortunes of the property market.
In 2022, we predict that house prices will continue to rise in the region of 5% to 6%. The reason is simple. Whilst the market may lack some of the urgency we have seen over the last two years, prompted in part by the stamp duty incentives, there is still a a significant supply and demand imbalance.
A growing population in our thriving region is producing a significant number of buyers and tenants and there is simply not enough property being built to satisfy that demand.
Even with predicted interest rate rises, lenders will continue to support the market with competitive rates and this will further exacerbate demand.
Jonathan Morgan, Leeds city centre specialist, Linley and Simpson with Morgans
This time last year, I was reflecting on an improving rentals market which was showing real signs of shaking off the crippling impact of national lockdown. Almost an entire year of rentals activity was stifled but now, as restrictions have eased, the city rentals market has taken off like never before.
Unprecedented void levels are long forgotten as we get used to full occupancy in our portfolio of almost 2,000 properties. We now have multiple applicants for every property and inevitable upward pressure on rents.
The city centre sales market has performed consistently well since we have been able to return to “business as usual” and we have delivered on some significant milestones during recent months, including a number of new homes apartment sales at £400 per square foot and a number of premium apartment sales at just under £1m. A record sale has also been posted at £1.16m which equates to £828 per square foot.
The impact of the tragedy at Grenfell continues to limit the number of city centre apartment buildings which are fully compliant and mortgageable and whilst the situation is slowly improving, it is likely to be a number of years yet before we can look back on the cladding crisis with a clear sense of direction.
2022 is going to be a very interesting year in the city centre as funds and private investors who are awash with cash and still focused on investing in “beds and sheds” – residential and warehousing.
The recent surge in take up and rents has already impacted on the pace of likely delivery of new purpose-built residential rental schemes such as Points Crossing, the second Phase of SOYO, the former ARLA site on Kirkstall Road, The Pin Yard by Grainger, Springwell Gardens, Globe Road by Get Living and the 665 apartment scheme by Highline Investments at Monkbridge all underway.
It is now highly likely that we will look back on the post-lockdown years as being the real boom years for city living in Leeds.
Andrew Hunt, partner, Allsop Leeds office
After such intensity in market activity during 2021, I expect that sales will start to fall back during 2022 to more normal, pre-pandemic levels.
Activity during the second half of 2022 may be slightly more muted than the first half. Inflationary pressures will persist and there is likely to be an interest rate rise or two, although these will be very gradual and most economists predict that rates will be no higher than 1% by the end of 2022.
Still, increased living costs will inevitably create a slightly more cautious environment.Gradual interest rate rises will limit how much buyers can borrow relative to their income and in a higher interest rate environment, house price growth and activity will be stifled to some extent. However lending rates still remain very competitive.
Importantly, buyer demand continues to outweigh supply. This imbalance is one of the key factors as to why house prices continue to rise.
I suggest we may see house price growth across Yorkshire and Humber during 2022 of between 5-7%.
We expect rental growth to outstrip capital price growth for traditional housing in suburban areas in Yorkshire due to limited supply and there has been a bounce back in demand for flats in the larger Yorkshire cities.
Look out for particularly healthy house price growth during 2022 in Rothwell and Lofthouse, partly due to the Stourton Park and Ride, and in Pudsey and Farsley which are in excellent positions for commuting into Leeds by train. Ditto in Ilkley and Wetherby which have a very limited development land supply.
Justin Dugdale, director, Yorkshire’s Finest estate agency
Just as the last two years have been dominated by Covid, it seems with the new variant emerging that 2022 could well be the same. It is therefore likely that the same forces which underpinned the market in the last two years will continue to dominate.
These are especially; working from home, meaning requirements for more indoor space, desire for more outdoor space, low interest rates and a strong staycation holiday market will mean Yorkshire’s rural villages and towns will see high demand continue.
I expect modest to strong house price growth of between 5%-7% with particular hotspots being the North York Moors, to include the coastal area in and around Whitby, the Yorkshire Dales and the quaint villages that surround Huddersfield, Wakefield and Halifax.
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