25-year surge predicted for region

For a period of almost 30 years, the number of Yorkshire residents remained broadly constant – fixed somewhere just below the five-million mark.

It was around the turn of the millennium when things began to change. Rising levels of immigration coincided with a sudden and unexpected rise in the birth rate, which hit a 35-year high in 2008.

Driven largely by these factors, the population of the UK as a whole rose by 2.7m in less than 10 years – a rise of 4.5 per cent.

Yorkshire's population grew too, and at a faster rate than much of the rest of Britain, surging upward by an estimated 200,000 in the first half of the decade.

Immigration to Yorkshire was higher than in many other parts of the UK, with the demand for migrant workers in rural areas and the large bases of immigrant families in cities such as Bradford and Leeds proving a strong draw for many from abroad.

At the same time, an increasing focus on healthier lifestyles and leaps forward in medical science mean people are living increasingly long lives. Again, the effect has been more keenly felt in parts of Yorkshire than in much of the UK – most notably in the East Riding, where many elderly people are heading to spend their retirement.

These underlying trends are predicted to continue.

A report by the US-based think-tank the Population Reference Bureau concluded that the UK would be the most heavily-populated country in Europe by 2050, outpacing both France and Germany to hit a peak of some 77 million people.

The UK's own Office for National Statistics (ONS) only predicts regional trends as far as 2033, but it sees Yorkshire surging ahead at a faster rate than any English region outside of the South West and East growing by 20.7 per cent over the 25-year period from 2008.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the key urban centres of Leeds and Bradford are expected to show the fastest growth, with the ONS expecting each to expand by well over a quarter between today and 2033. Many rural areas are growing rapidly too, most notably Selby and the East Riding. Just two parts of the region show only single-figure growth, Grimsby and Doncaster – two of Yorkshire and the Humber's most deprived areas.

Business leaders are cautiously pleased with the overall picture, comparing the trend favourably with the situation in parts of the 1980s when parts of Yorkshire were shrinking in size.

"In general there's a strong correlation between population growth and economic growth, so it's an indicator of a strength within the economy," said Nick Pontone, director of policy at Yorkshire and Humber Chambers of Commerce.

"But there is more pressure on all the things that come with that – public services, housing, transport and so on. So we are concerned that the capital spending looking forward over a number of years is likely to be lower. We need to make sure Yorkshire gets the investment to properly accommodate the growing numbers of people."

In areas such as Leeds and Hull, that will mean a particular focus on the long-standing need to vastly improve transport networks.

In more rural parts of the county, where the population is also expected to grow rapidly, the emphasis is likely to be on housing and support services.

Districts such as Selby will need thousands more homes, potentially bringing conflict with residents keen to protect the character of their local area. The East Riding will have to cope with a much larger, much older population, with all the additional care needs that will involve.

The figures are only projections, and the ONS revises its estimates periodically based on the latest trends. But regional planners are insistent they show that the Government must finally offer Yorkshire the financial support it will need.

[email protected]