Afghanistan is at the crossroads, but we must succeed

But despite this huge presence, the latest Pentagon report, published this week, says that violence in the country has reached an all-time high, with only modest gains against the insurgents. It follows last weekend's Nato summit in Lisbon which set a deadline of the end of 2014 for a halt to combat operations in Afghanistan, and agreed on a plan for the phased handover of the country's provinces to Afghan security forces.

Nato leaders claim the war on the Taliban and al-Qaida has been going well despite the high level of casualties. More than 650 coalition soldiers have already been killed this year, by far the highest number since the war began in 2001 – 40 per cent up on last year and the double that of two years ago.

But although the future of Afghanistan hangs in the balance, Mohammed Haneef Atmar, a key member of President Karzai's cabinet until he stepped down in June this year, says progress has been made. "The Afghan political system is the most democratic we have ever had, for the first time we have a progressive constitution that gives people the right to choose their leaders. There is freedom of speech and a flourishing independent media and the rebuilding of state institutions like the army and national police force, which was non-existent before."

Speaking during a visit to York University, where he spent 12 months studying a masters degree in post-war recovery studies in 1996, Mr Atmar said life for most Afghans has improved.

"Over seven million children are now going to school and 35 per cent of these are girls. Compare that to one million, who were all boys, back in 2001. Only nine per cent of the population had access to health care in 2002, whereas now that figure is around 80 per cent. The country's infrastructure has also improved significantly and there are more roads than ever before in our country's history."

Mr Atmar, who served as Minister for Education and Minister of the Interior in Hamid Karzai's government, was in York this week to deliver a speech on the reconstruction work going on in his homeland. However, he admits there are major obstacles to overcome if Afghanistan is to become a fully-functioning democracy. "There is significant concern about the war on terror, we are not doing well with that at the moment. Violence is up and the costs to Afghans and international soldiers are high, there has been a weakening of resolve," he says.

Afghanistan's drugs industry has boomed since the fall of the Taliban and the country supplies over 90 per cent of the world's opium, used to make heroin. International agencies say the drugs trade is helping to fuel the Taliban insurgency providing as much as $100m (63m) a year. Corruption, too, among Afghan officials still hasn't been stamped out.

"Since 9/11 there have been several attacks by al-Qaida in the US and Europe; all have been traced back to the border region of Pakistan and Afghanistan, so there is still a real threat," he says. "We need better governance if we are to prevent our country from being fertile ground for terrorists. That responsibility cannot be dodged."

Mr Atmar was raised in Kabul and he defends Mark Sedwill, Nato's leading civilian representative in Afghanistan, who was criticised recently for suggesting children in Kabul are safer than those in London, Glasgow and New York, despite the danger of unexploded bombs in the Afghan capital.

"I think what he is suggesting is that Kabul today is a much better place for children than it was and in that respect I totally agree with him. I don't know what benchmarks he was using for his comparison, if it is crime then he might be right because Kabul has reduced crime significantly, although kidnapping by criminal organisations is still a problem."

As for the future of Afghanistan he believes there are only two possible scenarios.

"One is an Afghanistan that is secure, democratic and prosperous, that does not allow al-Qaida a safe haven from where to attack Afghan people and the West. The other is a chaotic Afghanistan ruled by the Taliban which provides a safe haven to terrorists threatening the interests of the region and the West.

"But I am confident we will succeed, if we don't then the generations to come would not forgive us."