Jails 'training ground for terror'

Large-scale co-ordinated attacks are being replaced by highly-motivated but poorly trained individuals operating with the expectation that eventually one will succeed, a report in the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) Journal found.

The UK has more to fear than any other western country from home-grown terrorists and the conditions are all there for a series of attacks to begin at any time, the report for the defence and security think-tank said.

Its authors, Rusi director Michael Clarke and research fellow Valentina Soria, said estimates showed one in 10 of the 8,000 Muslim prisoners in high-security institutions in England and Wales were "successfully targeted" by radical jihadists.

"Perhaps some 800 potentially violent radicals, not previously guilty of terrorism charges, will be back in society over the coming five to 10 years," they wrote.

However, the figures were disputed by the Prison Service which said there were only 6,000 prisoners held in high security and most were not Muslim.

The authors maintain that with a foreign policy that "serves to focus alienation and resentment", the phenomenon of home-grown terrorism in the UK is growing, they said.

"The natural reaction to improved counter-terrorist operations is for jihadist attacks to evolve towards more individual efforts."

They said "a powerful al-Qaida media campaign" would make them "appear as dramatic and threatening as earlier attacks".

"If lone bombers and assassins are being sent out to try their luck... the key variable will be the effect these lone or spontaneous attempts have on the motivation of others to join the jihad," they said.

"Lone killers will always exist and some of them will succeed. The key question is whether their acts remain that of individuals or become part of a structural phenomenon."

Under a new generation of leaders such as Anwar Al-Awlaki, considered one of the world's most wanted terrorists, "it appears that high motivation is followed by fairly rudimentary training".

While the chances of success for a lone, poorly trained individual may be considerably lower, "eventually, it is reasoned, one of them will be lucky enough to succeed in a major way against high-profile targets in Western countries".

The Rusi report went on: "The possibility of attacks now hangs over all major sporting events from the Commonwealth Games in India and the 2012 Olympic Games in London, to all future signature events such as football World Cup tournaments."

A Ministry of Justice spokesman said the Prison and Probation Service did not recognise the figure of 800 "violent radicals" referred to in the report and did not agree that jihadist radicalisation was taking place at a rapid rate.

"There are only 6,000 prisoners in the High Security Estate, most of whom are not Muslim," the spokesman said. "The figure of 'one in 10 of the 8,000 Muslims' in the High Security Estate is therefore unrecognisable."

He went on: "The holding of extremist views and the process of radicalisation are not uniquely present in prison environments – both are found in wider society.

"The presumption that holding radical or extreme views necessarily leads to violent extremist behaviour and criminality should be challenged.

"All our High Security prisons operate enhanced monitoring and intelligence-gathering on those convicted or suspected of involvement in terrorism or extremism, and staff are trained to recognise and deal with behaviours which are of concern.

"We recognise the risk of radicalisation within the prison system and we run a dedicated, expert unit which leads work to tackle the risk posed by those offenders with violent extremist views, and those who may attempt to improperly influence others."