Leader hits out at population growth forecast

Tom Fox, the leader of Scarborough Borough Council, has strongly disputed predictions from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) that his district will grow by just 4,000 people over the next 25 years – a population increase of less than four per cent in a quarter of a century.

The ONS projection puts Scarborough in the bottom 12 local authority areas for population growth in a nationwide list of more than 350.

“I’m very surprised by the prediction and I’m afraid it’s clear they haven’t actually looked at the housing or the economic strategy we have here,” Coun Fox said.

“I don’t agree with them, and it is not how local industries here are looking at it either. It’s not a figure we would recognise.”

The Tory council leader said the predictions – based on past population flows and birth rates – had clearly not taken account of Scarborough’s prospects of capitalising on what look set to be two huge growth industries for the region over the coming years – 
offshore wind and potash 
mining.

Whitby is the closest harbour to the proposed 4GW offshore wind farm due to be built off the coast at Hornsea over the coming decade, with hundreds of vast turbines needing to be maintained out at sea for many years to come. The council hopes to establish Scarborough and Whitby as a key service base and point of embarkation for offshore wind engineers.

Meanwhile it was confirmed earlier this month that Sirius Minerals is hoping to open an enormous £2bn potash mine near Scarborough next year after discovering huge deposits of the mineral during test drilling. If permission is granted the mine is expected to create over 1,000 direct and 4,000 indirect jobs in the local area.

“There is so much going on here – obviously there have been difficult times but we are on the upturn now,” Coun Fox said. “We have a vision and a strategy to grow the borough by 20,000 people.

“There are major investment schemes and housing projects all over the borough that are linked to that. We are investing in business parks, and this ONS projection simply does not reflect the ambition and the economic strategy we have here.”

The concern for Scarborough is that ONS projections can be used by a number of Government departments as part of the basis for estimating what funding and services may be required locally in the future.

A prediction of such minimal growth over the next 25 years could in theory hamper the district’s prospects of securing much-needed investment from Westminster.

“I would be gravely worried if this were to be the basis of any sort of funding settlement and I would make representations to our MPs about that,” Coun Fox said.

On Saturday the Yorkshire Post revealed Scarborough has one of the most rapidly-ageing populations in the whole of the country, with young people moving away often being replaced with elderly people seeking retirement by the coast.

Coun Fox said he accepted that analysis but insisted that was all the more reason for the district to have a proper growth strategy.