Alan McGauley: Sex, money and a scandal that sends a new shadow over the path to peace

The First Minister's predicament could have serious political impacts and the real danger is that this then impacts on the whole peace process rather than on individual politicians or a political party.

The delicate nature of politics in Northern Ireland, and the uneasy alliances between the various parties, means that the personal problems of the province's politicians impact directly on the politics of the country and the rest of the UK. Simultaneously, Gerry Adams is also embroiled in an embarrassing controversy, over child abuse, in his family.

As the Northern Ireland Assembly is opened up to closer scrutiny, many will not like what they see. The once unthinkable arrangement between loyalism and Sinn Fein has made enormous progress and the dark days of the troubles are now a distant, if painful memory.

Peter Robinson was the British and Irish government's best hope of achieving the final critical stage in the peace process – the devolution of policing and justice powers to Northern Ireland.

His removal from the stage could throw the balance of power in a direction which cannot be planned for.

It could be argued that the money issue is more important than the sex issue, but the combination of the two is toxic for Unionist politics in the North of Ireland.

The two issues matter to different kinds of people and reflect the difference in the politics of Northern Ireland under the current transitional arrangements.

The money and allegations of buying influence has the potential to harm the DUP with the electorate in the same toxic manner as MPs' expenses on the mainland.

The sex issue plays internally to DUP members, a large proportion of whom are Free Presbyterians with fundamentalist views on matters of morality.

Ironically, Iris Robinson was one of their most forthright spokespeople. She had publicly stated that "the Government has the responsibility to uphold God's laws".

Her expressed views on homosexuality caused equal controversy in 2008 when she suggested gay people could be "turned" heterosexual with psychiatric help.

Both the Republicans and the Loyalists have small but growing elements that are unhappy with the new world of accord between Belfast and London.

While still at a low level, paramilitary violence is slowly increasing. The small number of unreconstructed republicans is now more confident but fortunately not militarily. Similarly, Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams has received a death threat from a Loyalist splinter paramilitary group called the Orange Volunteers.

Any element of political uncertainty could see these numbers swelled with a rise in violence which further destabilises the political

process

The power-sharing executive could be under threat. Sinn Fein could, in theory, refuse to endorse any new First Minister. In return, the DUP could refuse to endorse Martin McGuinness as Deputy.

There is even a possibility that Sinn Fein could emerge from any

elections as the largest single party because of divided and

demoralised Unionist parties.

Sinn Fein would then have the right to nominate the First Minister. This could well be Martin McGuiness who many political opponents accuse of having played a central role in the IRA military campaign.

This is a political outcome that could strengthen anti-republican sentiment among the wider Unionist community.

This means that we could now face a real political crisis which threatens to bring the lunatic fringes of Republicanism and Loyalism back into play.

There is still majority support in both communities for the power-sharing institutions. However, in the complex crisis that is unfolding, it is not immediately obvious how that reality can express itself.

What began as a sex and money scandal could result in the falling apart of the status quo.

When Charles Stewart Parnell, the leader of the Irish Nationalists, was embroiled in a sex scandal in 1890, this set back the cause of Republicanism for decades.

Whether Mr Robinson quits permanently, or survives, remains to be seen.

If he goes, it is essential that the DUP handle the replacement process as quickly as possible and that his successor is a pragmatist.

A vacuum and political posturing would be the worst case scenario. Politicians of all parties in Ireland and the UK must work to ensure

that the Assembly and devolution continue – they owe that to the new generation growing up in peace.

Alan McGauley is a senior lecturer in politics at Sheffield Hallam University.