Bernard Ingham: I fear more coalitions lie ahead when country cries out for clear leadership

Why is this so? Is it because political conviction is as sparse as real leadership? Does that in turn sap the public’s confidence in politicians? Or is it that, thanks to their behaviour, voters think politicians generally are a bunch of lying self-servers, as one poll has suggested?

It could, of course, be a combination of all these things. Whatever it is, there is only 
one conclusion: with less than 
two years to go to a general election, British politics is in an awful mess.

It follows that if, as I suggested last week, Labour is in a serious condition, the Tories are not much healthier. With the Liberal Democrats traditionally owt for tuppence, Ukip a narrowly-based party of protest and volatile support, the Greens a silly joke and Nationalists on the make, we cannot reasonably expect much.

The fact remains that we do – and that we need competent and able politicians to lead us out of the heavily indebted and failing state into which this nation and its services have fallen.

Which immediately focuses attention on the Prime Minister. He is the man in charge. He is the only one with access to the resources needed to turn the nation round. If he cannot over the next two years create an impression of purpose and progress, then my colleagues may well be right: more coalition looms.

In short, the screws are on David Cameron who has been hosting the G8 summit of world leaders in Northern Ireland this week. What are his chances of leading a majority government from 2015?

Well, the economy seems to be picking up, though anything could happen with the EU pursuing its mad and socially dangerous single currency project and our budget deficit still crippling.

Cameron can reasonably say he is trying to tackle the failings in education, the NHS, welfare and criminal justice but he needs a lot more evidence of success, especially on a creaking NHS and an out-of-control benefits system.

His position on an EU referendum is more in tune with public opinion, if not entirely convincing, and is putting pressure on Labour, though not the Lib Dems who are hopeless Europhiles. But I would not give much for his chances if we are swamped by Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants next year.

He is helped by Labour’s weakness but his Lib Dem coalition partners, who are too often the reactionary Left in government, will increasingly be more rather than less divisive as they seek to differentiate themselves from the Tories as the election approaches.

In normal circumstances he would be helped from now on by his own party, if only out of self-preservation. They cannot go on tearing themselves apart. If Cameron cannot rally them to the cause, he and they will surely pay the price for disunity. As their ousting of Margaret Thatcher showed, the Tories’ ruthless stupidity should never be under-estimated. As things stand, I would expect Cameron to lead his party in 2015, if only because he still looks Prime Ministerial and there is want of a real burgeoning alternative talent.

In saying that, I confess I have a beady eye on Chris Grayling, Justice Secretary, who seems to have steel and purpose in him.

So what does all this mean? The Tories – and Cameron – are paying a heavy price for their failure to win in 2010. Coalition has not been good for them, though whether it has blunted the message when Cameron still seems preoccupied with making the Tories seem “nice” (such as over same sex marriage) rather than effective is another matter.

In fact, both major parties are still trying to discover what they really stand for and how they want to be seen by the electorate. Labour’s search is much more difficult with its paymaster-unions and Blairite split.

Conservative MPs exhibit a shade more self-confidence and intellectual drive but have had limited success with their leadership so far. Cameron is essentially a reactive public relations chappie rather than a philosopher with convictions.

To win in 2015 he needs soon to fire his party with enthusiasm for a muscular programme. Until then, the Tories’ condition is almost as serious as Labour’s. So is the nation’s. It faces another dose of coalition. God save us.