Christoph Bluth: Doomed régime in a cycle of confrontation

On May 20, the results of an investigation, carried out by international experts, was announced. According to their report, the Cheonan had been attacked by a North Korean torpedo, the remains of which had been recovered, fired from a midget submarine.

The South Korean government announced the termination of all economic relations with North Korea (with the exception of the Kaesong industrial complex) as well as various security-related measures. Inter-Korean relations had reached their lowest point since the 1980s.

It seemed that all the gains of 10 years of diplomacy had been lost and, as we reach the 60th anniversary of the Korean war, the prospect for a devastating war on the Korean peninsula remains ever present.

The last 60 years have seen a remarkable reversal of fortune. In the aftermath of the Korean war, South Korea was in a parlous state, with a military dictatorship in charge of a third world country. North Korea recovered from its devastating defeat. Its economy was rebuilt by the Soviet Union and the DPRK became the stronger of the two Koreas, both economically and militarily.

The "Great Leader", Kim Il-sung, continued to harbour the dream of the unification of Korea under his leadership. But, under the rule of his son, Kim Jong-il, after the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia withdrew economic support from its former third world allies, North Korea became an economic basket case.

In the mid-1990s, there was a serious famine in which more than a million people perished. All the state's meagre economic resources were poured into the military, the development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, while the population endured the tyrannical rgime and abject poverty.

South Korea, on the other hand, transformed itself into a modern democracy and developed into an industrial country that leads the world in many high-technology products.

The North Korean state is not viable politically, socially and economically. Its rulers reject internal reform, refuse to open up the country to the world and conduct foreign policy on the basis of threats.

How do we explain this often seemingly bizarre behaviour by a country that George W Bush included in the "axis of evil"?

The answer lies in the fact that the North Korean state is doomed. It can survive only if it fundamentally reforms its economy and polity. But such a reform will mean the end of the Kim dynasty and the reason for North Korea to exist. The North Korean leadership is caught in a trap from which there is no escape.

However, this does not mean that the DPRK will collapse any time soon. It is held together with enormous force, with all the control instruments of a totalitarian society and with total disregard for the well-being of its citizens.

It does mean, however, there is no solution for the North Korean security dilemma, because the primary threat it faces is not external.

The last 18 years of North Korea's foreign relations have been dominated by the confrontation over the nuclear programme. The general concept of negotiations over the nuclear programme was that the international community would underwrite North Korea economically and normalise relations – in return for the abandonment of weapons of mass destruction.

However, these efforts were based on faulty premises. A resolution of the nuclear issue does not solve the underlying problem. The North Korean rgime will continue to remain unacceptable to the US and most of the international community. No matter what agreements are signed, the outside world will seek gradual rgime change.

For Kim Jong-il, however, the American enemy is necessary to legitimise his rule. This leaves the North Korean leadership with the dilemma that it needs to improve its relations with the outside world, and especially the United States, in order to mitigate the external threat and obtain the economic support it needs.

At the same time, any such improvement undermines the rgime and questions its very existence. Thus an unending cycle of confrontation and accommodation is inevitable while this rgime endures.

The Obama administration has learnt the hard way that there is no easy solution to the North Korean situation. Military action is out of the question because of the threat of escalation that could cost millions lives. Economic engagement has not changed the erratic and aggressive behaviour of the North Korean state.

But the spirited performance of the North Korean team at the World Cup has reminded us of the human dimension. Social and economic engagement can be fashioned to reach the people of North Korea, enhance human contacts between North and South, and gradually bring about social change.

This is why it is imperative that a way is found to get beyond the Cheonan incident and resume the inter-Korean dialogue. Ultimately, the Korean people will have to find the way to determine their future.